Trump: US Only Semi-Negotiating With Iran, Gold Prices Rise

Gold is trading around $4,347 this morning and holding steady. The price itself is less important than one word President Trump used in an interview with Axios over the weekend — a single term that sheds light on where the Strait of Hormuz standoff actually stands and what that means for markets.

What Did Trump Actually Say About Iran Negotiations?

On Sunday, President Trump told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that the United States is “only semi-negotiating” with Iran. He did not threaten new military action; instead he described a patient, measured approach aimed at letting pressure mount.

“We are low-keying it,” Trump said. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” He added: “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that there are no direct, formal negotiations with the United States. Communications continue through intermediaries — primarily Pakistan and Qatar — while Oman conducts a separate bilateral discussion with Iran about shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has not characterised these channels as direct talks with Washington.

Over the weekend, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council set out conditions for reopening the strait. Tehran demands an end to the U.S. naval blockade, lifting of all sanctions, release of frozen Iranian assets, and full compensation for war damage from U.S. strikes dating to the conflict’s outbreak on February 28, 2026. These are firm demands, not obvious opening gambits intended to be scaled back quickly.

Why Does the Hormuz Stalemate Matter for Gold Prices?

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply in normal times. Its effective closure since the conflict began has kept energy markets on edge and complicated the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting decisions.

For gold holders, the key mechanism runs through inflation expectations and real yields. Persistently high energy prices keep inflation expectations elevated. That puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates. When the probability of rate hikes rises, real yields tend to increase, which is typically negative for gold.

So why is gold remaining comfortably above $4,300 even with a near-60% chance of a September rate increase priced by markets? Because investors are beginning to treat this standoff as enduring rather than ephemeral.

President Trump has signalled that a deal was “days away” multiple times since the conflict began. Each optimistic signal briefly pushed oil lower and stocks higher, but the standoff reasserted itself within 48 to 72 hours. That pattern — repeated optimism that does not produce a swift resolution — is changing how professional investors position themselves in gold.

Evidence of patient capital moving into gold appears in ETF flows: GLD recorded substantial inflows recently, indicating that longer-term investors are rotating into gold as a hedge rather than speculators chasing headlines.

What Is Iran’s Economic Position Right Now?

Trump’s “chess game” metaphor captures a valid point: economic pressure matters, and Iran’s economy is under strain. The U.S. naval blockade has curtailed Iranian oil exports, inflation is severe, and the administration argues Tehran faces acute fiscal pressure.

Yet Tehran did not moderate its demands this weekend; it hardened them. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on the port of Mocha in the Red Sea — twice within 24 hours — signal a risk of broader maritime disruption. Tehran’s political calculations may not follow a straight line from economic pain to immediate concession.

That divergence between economic stress and political choices is precisely why the stalemate matters for gold markets. Both a rapid resolution and a prolonged impasse remain realistic outcomes. When uncertainty is expected to persist, gold tends to establish a stronger price floor rather than a short-lived ceiling.

How Should Gold Investors Interpret This Development?

Additional clarity will arrive this week from macro data: July CPI is scheduled for release on Wednesday, August 12. Consensus forecasts expect headline inflation to tick down slightly to about 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Softer-than-expected inflation would reduce the odds of a September rate hike and could lift gold. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected print would bolster the case for rate hikes and could pressure bullion.

From a technical perspective, gold faces resistance near $4,380 and finds support around $4,300. The geopolitical stalemate establishes a baseline — a floor of sorts — while economic data will determine the market’s ability to push through resistance and trend higher.

For investors holding physical gold or gold ETFs, the shift in language from “deal is imminent” to “semi-negotiating” is meaningful. It signals the administration is openly adopting a strategy of attrition rather than rushing a negotiated settlement. Attrition strategies typically extend timelines, and prolonged uncertainty is historically supportive of gold.

Gold’s appeal in extended geopolitical uncertainty stems from its structural qualities: no counterparty risk, no issuer that can change terms, and no earnings stream to disappoint. When geopolitical tensions behave like a long chess match, physical metal carries no clock that forces a sale.

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SOURCES
1. Axios — Trump: “We are only semi-negotiating with them,” August 9, 2026
2. ABC News — Iran war negotiations, August 10, 2026
3. CBS News — Trump “semi-negotiating,” Houthi Mocha attacks, August 10, 2026
4. Bloomberg — Trump signals U.S. will rely on economic pressure over Iran, August 10, 2026
5. CNBC — Administration optimism moved markets without producing a deal, August 7, 2026
6. Benzinga — GLD ETF inflows and asset figures, August 9, 2026
7. InvestingLive — Iran vows Hormuz stays closed, Houthis widen Red Sea blockade, August 10, 2026
8. GoldSilver.com — Spot prices, August 10, 2026

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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