Why Gold Fell Again: Five Wall Street Analysts Disagree

Gold is trading near $4,170 an ounce this session, up roughly 1.3% from this morning’s open but still reeling from Monday’s drop to a two-month low. Silver sits around $61.27, hovering at a level several analysts now describe as critical. Over the past 24 hours, five institutional desks released fresh gold forecasts — and they disagree on the immediate path. Real yields are climbing, Fed-hike probabilities have risen, and the dollar has strengthened, all pressuring precious metals. At the same time, demand from central banks, rising ETF holdings, and strong Chinese import figures have not fallen away. Below we outline what each research desk is watching and why their views matter for investors in gold and silver.

Why Does Saxo Bank Call Gold’s Pullback a ‘Sterner Test’?

Gold slipped below the $4,230 support level on Monday, a move Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen described as the sector’s toughest test to date. The key driver was a jump in the U.S. 10-year real yield, which Saxo reported rose to an 18-year high near 2.85%. A firmer dollar added further strain. That combination pushed gold down more than 3% in a single trading day, with silver falling about 5%. For weeks Hansen has argued gold was decoupling from rising real yields because ETF holdings continued to climb even as yields advanced. Monday’s selloff directly tests that thesis. If ETF holdings begin to shed significant tonnes, the decoupling case weakens. If large institutional holders remain steady through this sharp move, it would suggest buyers see risks or fundamentals the price action has not yet priced in.

Could Gold Really Retest $4,000 This Week?

State Street strategist Aakash Doshi says a retest of $4,000 is possible in the coming days as rising bond yields and higher Fed-hike odds weigh on prices. That scenario should be viewed as a short-term price path rather than a change to State Street’s medium-term view. Doshi still identifies $4,000 as a likely floor and includes $5,000 within his broader outlook over the next six months. State Street’s published base case for early 2027 targets a range around $4,750 to $5,500, driven by continued central bank demand, expanding fiscal deficits, and an expectation that the Fed has more work to do. In short, the timing of moves may shift, but the drivers supporting higher prices over the medium term remain intact.

Why Is MKS PAMP Still Watching China Buy Gold Through the Selloff?

Nicky Shiels, head of research at MKS PAMP, emphasized that rising oil prices, climbing real yields, and stronger Fed-hike expectations all push paper gold lower. At the same time, China, other Asian buyers, and several emerging-market central banks continue to accumulate physical bullion. That persistent physical demand often establishes a reliable price floor during volatile selloffs. When paper markets and physical buyers diverge sharply, history suggests the physical side — patient, long-term accumulation by central banks and sovereign buyers — is the force most likely to determine medium-term price support.

Why Does StoneX See More Upside Than Downside for Q4?

StoneX takes a cautiously bullish stance for Q4. The firm notes the People’s Bank of China has reported monthly gold purchases measured in double-digit tonnes since May, suggesting persistent official demand even at elevated prices. Reported central bank buys total roughly 130 tonnes so far this year, only slightly below last year’s pace for the same period. StoneX argues that upside risks outweigh downside risks: a weaker dollar driven by a so-called debasement trade, or a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that eases pressure on oil and yields, could prompt a rapid shift in investor positioning. Such triggers might push retail and institutional investors into ETFs, spot, and futures simultaneously, amplifying any rally rather than prompting the kind of fading that marked much of Q3.

Is Silver’s $60 Level the Line Between a Bottom and a Breakdown?

Heraeus quantified the physical demand story with fresh import statistics: China brought in 142 tonnes of gold in August alone, lifting its eight-month total to 1,141 tonnes — a 72% increase year-over-year. Heraeus now projects roughly 1,700 tonnes for the full year, a pace that would be the strongest of the 2020s so far. On silver, Heraeus identifies $60 as a key technical and psychological level. A bounce from here back toward $70 despite a firm dollar and hawkish Fed would indicate silver is bottoming. Conversely, a decisive close below $60 would signal a continuation of the downtrend that began after January’s peak. That $60 threshold aligns closely with support zones highlighted in recent technical analyses and is a more meaningful signal than day-to-day headlines.

---

SOURCES
1. Saxo Bank — Gold’s Real-Yield Divergence Faces a Sterner Test (September 28, 2026)
2. Heraeus Precious Metals — Bullion Report: China’s Gold Imports and the Silver $60 Level (September 28, 2026)
3. Bloomberg — MKS PAMP’s Nicky Shiels on Gold Slumping as Markets Price More Fed Hikes (September 28, 2026)
4. StoneX — Gold Q4 2026 Outlook: Resilience in the Face of Rallying Dollar and Yields (September 28, 2026)
5. State Street Investment Management (Aakash Doshi) — Rising Bond Yields Could Push Gold to $4,000, but $5,000 Still Seen by Q2 2027 (September 28, 2026)
6. GoldSilver — Live Gold and Silver Price Charts (accessed September 29, 2026)
7. GoldSilver — Gold’s 7-Week Low: What the Chart Says Happens Next (September 28, 2026)
8. GoldSilver — Gold Just Hit a Two-Month Low. Yields, Not Iran, Are Why. (September 29, 2026)

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

You May Also Like: 

• Gold Just Hit a Two-Month Low. Yields, Not Iran, Are Why.
• Gold’s 7-Week Low: What the Chart Says Happens Next
• Gold Sank 4% Today. Five Other Signals Point to a Steadier Market Underneath.
• Gold Fields’ $27 Billion Bid Got Rejected. The Reason Is a Risk Bullion Doesn’t Carry.
• Gold Falls 3% as Hormuz Standoff Lifts Fed Hike Odds to 66%
• Sentiment Rose to 48.1. Gold Sold Off Anyway. The Number That Mattered Was 4.6%.
• Five Institutions Just Changed How You Can Own Gold and Silver
• Gold and Silver Rebound as the Dollar and Treasury Yields Take a Pause
• India’s Gold Imports Fell 58%. Silver Imports Rose 127%.