Morgan Stanley has increased its gold price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, citing several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could push precious metals higher. The bank highlights a softer U.S. dollar, potential inflationary pressures, and persistent global uncertainty as key drivers supporting a stronger gold market.
In its outlook, Morgan Stanley identifies gold, silver, and copper futures as preferred positions within the metals sector. The report points to renewed demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central bank purchases as important sources of buying pressure that could lift gold prices further. Additionally, fiscal and monetary stimulus from China is seen as a potential catalyst for broader commodity demand, which would support metals prices.
While the outlook is constructive, the bank warns of risks that could add volatility. New U.S. tariffs and escalating global trade tensions could raise industrial costs and disrupt supply chains, creating uncertainty for metals markets. Such developments might intermittently weigh on investor sentiment and price momentum.
On the demand side, Morgan Stanley notes that jewelry consumption could rebound as consumers adapt to higher prices over time. Rising wealth in some markets and continued interest in stores of value may also sustain physical demand for gold and other precious metals.
Overall, the bank’s revised forecast reflects a mix of supportive macro forces and caution about geopolitical and trade-related risks. Investors watching metals markets should consider both the upside potential tied to currency shifts and central-bank activity and the downside risks from trade policy and broader economic disruptions.