Oil prices recovered on Friday, with Brent crude rising 0.77% to $70.42 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing 0.87% to $67.13, reversing losses from the previous session. The rebound reflected reduced expectations for a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin offered only conditional support for a U.S.-proposed ceasefire.
Market participants also cited several other influences on the rally. A U.S. license that had allowed certain energy-related transactions with Russian financial institutions recently expired, tightening the scope for sanctioned dealings and raising concerns about longer-term supply disruptions. At the same time, Chinese state-owned firms have scaled back purchases of Russian oil amid heightened sanctions risk, lowering demand for that crude and shifting trade flows.
Adding to the uncertainty, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a potential global oil oversupply of around 600,000 barrels per day this year. That projection has weighed on market sentiment by suggesting that supply could outpace demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. Together, geopolitical tensions, policy shifts, and evolving trade patterns have combined to create a volatile backdrop for crude markets, prompting traders to reassess near-term supply and demand balances.
Energy analysts note the market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and regulatory changes that affect the movement of Russian crude and refined products. Any further escalation or easing of the Ukraine conflict, changes in sanctions policy, or adjustments in global economic activity could quickly alter the price outlook. For now, the modest gains in Brent and WTI reflect a complex interplay of tightening access to Russian markets, demand adjustments by major buyers, and the IEA’s caution about potential oversupply.
Investors and industry observers will be watching forthcoming data on inventories, refinery activity, and OPEC+ production decisions, all of which could influence the next direction for oil prices. In the short term, however, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting trade behavior appears to have supported Friday’s price recovery.