Gold Climbs From 13-Month Low After PPI; Silver Trails

Last verified: November 13, 2026, 1:15 p.m. ET

Friday’s U.S. producer-price report produced a mixed signal that briefly unsettled metals markets: the monthly reading was softer than expected, interrupting gold’s worst week since June, while the year-over-year number climbed to its highest level in almost four years. Gold reacted positively to the softer monthly surprise; silver did not follow suit.

Spot gold traded around $3,884 per ounce in the afternoon session, up roughly 0.2% from the opening price after recovering from a 3% drop on Thursday that left the metal at its lowest level in more than a year. Spot silver, by contrast, was trading near $49.13 and slipped almost 2% on the day, extending declines as the session progressed. You can monitor live prices on GoldSilver’s price charts and other market feeds.

Key Takeaways

• October producer prices rose 0.3% month over month, below the 0.4% consensus. That softer monthly print reduced the market’s estimated probability of a December rate hike from roughly 96% to about 89%.
• Despite the soft monthly pace, annual producer-price inflation accelerated to 6.5% — the strongest year-over-year reading since November 2022 — indicating persistent inflationary pressure over a longer horizon.
• Silver did not follow gold’s modest recovery. Silver fell nearly 2%, driving the gold-to-silver ratio up to around 79:1, from about 77.5:1 a day earlier.

Why Is Annual Inflation at a Four-Year High While the Monthly Number Cooled?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in October. Economists surveyed had expected a 0.4% monthly increase. September’s PPI was revised sharply higher to 1.4%, so October’s month-to-month gain looks tame by comparison. Over the last 12 months, however, producer prices are up 6.5% — the fastest annual pace since November 2022. The immediate market reaction was a spike in gold to $3,922.97 when the data were released, but much of that gain faded within an hour.

Why Did Gold Bounce While Silver Kept Falling?

The key driver for the market moves was expectations for Federal Reserve policy, not the inflation print in isolation. Before the PPI release, markets priced about a 96.2% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the December 8–9 meeting. After the report, that probability eased to roughly 89.4%. The odds of a larger 50-basis-point hike also declined slightly, from about 13.8% to 10.6%.

Gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge is influenced by real interest rates and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. A reduced chance of a larger Fed move lowers the implied cost of holding gold versus short-term Treasuries, giving bullion some support. But with the market still assigning a near-90% probability to a December hike, real borrowing costs remain elevated, limiting gold’s upside. Silver, which is more closely tied to industrial demand as well as safe-haven flows, did not benefit from the same shift in sentiment and instead resumed losses. Historically silver tends to amplify gold’s moves, but on this session it diverged.

Independent analysts noted gold’s struggle to sustain gains as bond markets wrestle with persistent Fed hawkishness. That dynamic has kept a cap on gold’s ability to reclaim key psychological levels, such as $4,000 per ounce.

What This Means for Owners of Physical Metal

For holders of physical gold or silver, short-term price swings driven by changing rate expectations are a familiar feature. Each basis point by which the market trims the chance of a Fed hike adjusts the opportunity cost of holding metal versus earning yields in short-term government securities. The fundamental case for owning physical metal rests on its lack of counterparty risk and its role as a portfolio diversifier — not on winning every data release. Paper assets remain vulnerable to the same rate and inflation dynamics that are causing volatility in precious metals markets.

What Would Actually Change This Picture?

Upcoming economic readings and Federal Reserve communications could shift the current picture. On Monday, November 16, investors will see the Empire State manufacturing survey and October retail sales — modest but relevant datapoints that feed into rate-odds calculations. The more consequential release will be the Fed’s minutes from the October meeting on Wednesday, November 18, which can clarify how divided officials are on future policy moves.

Until further information arrives, the market-implied roughly 89% probability of a December rate hike is the variable most likely to influence metals markets more than the day-to-day spot price. Traders and long-term holders who lived through the recent slide into Thursday’s low and earlier CPI-driven selling will recognize the pattern: price swings often reflect shifting expectations about interest rates rather than changes to the intrinsic qualities of the metals themselves. The gold-silver ratio is another indicator to watch; today it moved higher as silver underperformed gold.

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SOURCES
1. Reuters — Rate Hike Bets Keep Gold on Track for Its Worst Week in Four Months
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Producer Price Index News Release, October 2026

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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