How 5 Institutions Just Changed Gold and Silver Ownership

Gold traded near $4,279 an ounce on Friday, while silver held around $63.92. Both metals are digesting a Fed-driven pullback this week, but the bigger story is how access to physical gold and silver is being rebuilt in real time. In the past 24 hours five institutional moves stood out: a Wall Street bank revised its forecast, Taiwan’s largest state-owned bank opened a gold custody desk, a U.S. tokenization firm launched a product that channels gold-lease income to retail holders, Hong Kong signaled potential sovereign buying, and a U.S. mint warned of a silver-refining backlog. Together, these developments point to a structural reshaping of how investors and institutions store, lend, and acquire precious metals.

Is Wall Street’s Own Gold Forecast Splitting in Two?

Not splitting so much as tightening under pressure. Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas cut the bank’s year-end 2026 gold estimate to $4,650 an ounce from $4,900, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike and expectations for further tightening. Goldman’s economists now anticipate another hike in October, and that higher-rate environment has already weakened ETF demand. Despite the near-term adjustment, Goldman left its end-2027 target unchanged at $5,400.

Thomas’s core reasoning remains unchanged: official-sector purchases are extraordinary, running near 90 tonnes per month compared with a pre-2022 monthly average of roughly 17 tonnes. That sustained central-bank buying accounts for almost all of Goldman’s projected 23% gain through 2027. The bank has shifted its timing around expected Fed cuts — Thomas now models three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028 — but not its longer-term price destination.

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Why Is a State-Owned Taiwanese Bank Opening a Gold Custody Desk?

Bank of Taiwan, the island’s largest bank and a government-owned lender, has launched a wealth-management unit centered on physical gold custody for high-net-worth clients. That move mirrors a broader trend across Asian private banking: custodial services for physical bullion are becoming a formal wealth product rather than a retail convenience. Singapore’s OCBC introduced a similar custody arm earlier this year after reporting a sharp rise in gold-bar demand.

Taiwan’s cultural affinity for physical gold, combined with the bank’s history — it became the country’s top gold seller after absorbing a former state import agency in 2007 — makes custody a logical commercial extension. Turning a retail sales counter into a vault-based business line shifts how demand is monetized and managed. As with central banks, the identity of the custodian matters: who holds the metal can be nearly as important as who owns it.

Can You Now Earn Yield on Gold Without Giving It Up?

Paxos Labs believes so. On September 24, Paxos — the regulated U.S. firm behind PAX Gold — introduced PAXGy, a token designed to capture institutional gold-leasing income and make it accessible to ordinary holders. Historically, bullion banks, refiners, miners and jewelers have borrowed physical gold through lease markets. PAXGy routes reserves — deposited as PAX Gold or eligible stablecoins — to vetted institutional borrowers, and the lease returns are reflected as a rising exchange ratio between PAXGy and PAXG rather than as newly issued tokens.

Practically, that means a holder who deposits PAXG or approved stablecoins could eventually redeem more gold than they initially deposited, without losing ownership while the asset is on-chain. The product launched on exchanges including OKX and Uniswap and uses cross-chain infrastructure to move reserves and update pricing. PAXGy is another step toward formalizing tokenized gold into a distinct, yield-bearing asset class for a broader audience.

Is Hong Kong About to Become a New Sovereign Gold Buyer?

It’s possible. Hong Kong’s Deputy Financial Secretary Michael Wong recently told bankers he is confident the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will make prudent decisions regarding the Exchange Fund’s gold holdings. That public confidence follows Hong Kong’s 2026 Policy Address, which proposed studying a larger gold reserve to help position the city as a commodities-trading hub with gold as a gateway product.

The HKMA has said it will not disclose current gold holdings, citing financial-stability considerations. Still, global central-bank purchases through 2026 have been near record levels. If Hong Kong formally joins that wave as a sovereign buyer, it would add another balance sheet to the long list of institutional demand supporting gold prices over the medium term.

Why Is Silver Backed Up for Months Even Though Supply Looks Fine?

The bottleneck has shifted from the mine to the refinery. Scottsdale Mint CEO Josh Phair told industry reporters that U.S. silver refining capacity is currently running three to four months behind schedule. Geopolitical realignments and demand for refineries perceived as more aligned with U.S. buyers have redirected ore flows, increasing pressure on available processing slots.

Importantly, finished investment-grade silver is not scarce in U.S. inventory today; buyers can still source minted product. The friction is upstream: processing and refining capacity has not expanded fast enough to match rising demand. Years of underinvestment and slow permitting for new refining facilities could eventually shift that strain back to mine production, but for now the practical consequence for investors and dealers is longer lead times on newly minted bars and coins. Anyone monitoring vault storage, delivery logistics, and inventory turnover should factor in extended lead times for new product.

SOURCES
1. BigGo Finance — Goldman Holds $5,400 Gold Target, Trims Near-Term View After Fed Hike
2. Hubbis — Bank of Taiwan Launches High-Net-Worth Wealth Business With Physical Gold Custody Service
3. PR Newswire — Paxos Labs Launches PAXGy, a PAXG-Backed Token that Grows in Gold Terms
4. The Standard — HKMA Will Make Wise Investment Decisions on Exchange Fund’s Gold Holding: Michael Wong
5. Mining.com — Silver’s Bottleneck Is at the Refinery, Not the Vault, Scottsdale Mint CEO Says

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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