Why Gold Is Outperforming Nvidia in 2025

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors — September 10th, 2025

Inflation Watch: All Eyes on This Week’s Reports

Key inflation reports due this week could show consumer prices accelerated in August, with economists broadly expecting month‑over‑month increases near 0.3%. That uptick would grab headlines, but markets are already pricing in a more complex reaction from policymakers.

Just as important as a single monthly print is the broader economic backdrop: the labor market has softened noticeably, and that weakness is taking precedence at the Federal Reserve. Fed officials appear prepared to weigh slower hiring and cooling wage pressures more heavily than an isolated inflation bump. As a result, many analysts expect the Fed will emphasize growth concerns when it meets on September 16–17 and may still move toward easing even if inflation prints a bit hotter than anticipated.

For precious metals investors, this dynamic matters. Higher inflation typically supports gold and silver, but the prospect of easing monetary policy and growing political risk around Fed independence are reinforcing demand for physical and financial metal exposure.

Trump vs. The Fed: Judge Blocks Presidential Power Play

President Trump’s recent attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has been temporarily blocked by a federal judge, ensuring she will retain her seat at least through the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The court’s injunction prevents the dismissal from taking effect in time for the critical September 16–17 policy decision, preserving the current voting composition.

The legal setback underscores the institutional independence of the Fed and serves as a reminder that presidential pressure can meet judicial limits. Market participants interpret the dispute as an additional source of political and economic uncertainty, a factor that has supported demand for traditional safe‑haven assets.

2025’s Surprise Winners: Metals Triple S&P 500 Performance

Amid the year’s market narrative—dominated by AI and large technology names—gold and silver have quietly outperformed many major benchmarks. Year‑to‑date, gold has climbed roughly 38% while silver has risen about 40%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s gain of approximately 11.6%.

Even headline-grabbing winners such as Nvidia, which has enjoyed massive investor attention for its AI exposure, trail gold’s performance; Nvidia’s year‑to‑date return around 27% is notably below the gains seen in precious metals. This performance differential highlights a broader rotation: when confidence wavers, investors increasingly allocate to assets they can hold physically or that historically preserve purchasing power.

The move into metals is not purely tactical. Several major banks and commodity strategists have revised targets higher, citing a combination of robust investment demand, central bank purchases, and rising geopolitical tensions that could amplify flight‑to‑safety flows.

ANZ Bank: $3,800 Gold by Year‑End

ANZ Group has raised its year‑end gold forecast to $3,800 per ounce and suggested a possible peak near $4,000 by mid‑2026. The Australian bank points to strong investment demand and safe‑haven buying as primary drivers. Those numbers follow a recent record when gold reached $3,674, and they would imply substantial gains from current levels if the outlook materializes.

ANZ’s forecast reflects a view that persistent macro uncertainty—currency concerns, slower growth, and elevated geopolitical risk—will sustain buying interest among both private and institutional investors.

Goldman’s Call: $5,000 Gold “Highest Conviction” Trade

Goldman Sachs recently named gold its top commodities pick, stating it could rise toward $5,000 per ounce by late 2026. The bank framed the call as a high‑conviction trade driven by scenarios that would push inflation higher, undermine investor confidence in stocks and bonds, and weaken the dollar—particularly if political pressure threatens central bank independence.

Goldman’s recommendation to increase exposure to gold is positioned as insurance against those downside risks. With central banks already accumulating reserves and volatility in global politics and policy, the firm argues that the setup favors precious metals over many other asset classes.

What this means for investors: the confluence of higher inflation prints, a cooling labor market, and political uncertainty around central bank autonomy has created a supportive environment for gold and silver. While forecasts vary and timing remains uncertain, the market narrative for 2025 and into 2026 increasingly favors precious metals as a portfolio hedge. This is not investment advice—investors should consider risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification when evaluating exposure to commodities and physical metals.