President Trump has renewed his maximum-pressure campaign aimed at curbing Iran’s oil exports, but the market so far has reacted only modestly. The muted response underscores how global oil dynamics have evolved since Trump’s first term. Under the previous round of sanctions in 2020, Iranian exports fell to roughly 150,000 barrels per day (bpd). During … Read more

President Trump’s newly announced tariffs—described as the steepest in more than a century—have placed the Federal Reserve in a delicate position. By raising import costs, the tariffs risk pushing consumer prices higher while simultaneously slowing growth, a combination that could force policymakers to balance inflation control against supporting the economy. Some economists warn that these … Read more

Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Target to $5,400 Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from a prior target of $4,900. The firm expects private investors seeking protection from macroeconomic and policy risks to maintain their positions through 2026 rather than liquidate them. Central banks continue to be significant buyers, … Read more

A sharp selloff in the U.S. Treasury market has driven the 10-year Treasury yield near the 5% mark, a psychologically important level that is heightening concern among investors and market participants. DataTrek Research notes that for many investors this is the highest sustained yield they have seen in their careers—the last prolonged period above 5% … Read more

The U.S. dollar remained soft on Wednesday, trading near a five‑month low as markets absorbed fresh trade tensions and shifting geopolitical developments. New U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory duties covering $28.39 billion of American goods beginning in April. That tit‑for‑tat escalation has heightened concerns about a broader … Read more

Consumer sentiment in the United States tumbled to a 29-month low in March, with the University of Michigan’s survey reporting an index reading of 57.6, down from 64.7 in February. This decline reflects growing unease among households about the economic outlook. Much of the post-election optimism has faded as many Americans express concern about rising … Read more

The world’s leading central bankers from the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea will gather in Sintra, Portugal next week to discuss pressing global economic issues. Many advanced economies have seen inflation come down toward target levels, easing immediate price pressures for consumers and policymakers. Yet a more persistent … Read more

The Senate’s version of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” emphasizes tax relief and popular spending measures rather than aggressive deficit reduction. Over a ten-year period, the plan increases the budget deficit by about $3.3 trillion, driven by roughly $4.5 trillion in tax cuts paired with only $1.2 trillion in spending offsets. Lawmakers agreed on … Read more

DataTrek Research warns that the VIX, commonly called the market’s “fear gauge,” remaining elevated for an extended period could herald the start of a bear market. Co-founder Nicholas Colas highlights that the VIX’s 30-day average has held at 21.4 for 12 consecutive days, staying above its long-term historical average of 19.5. The VIX tends to … Read more

New research from Goldman Sachs highlights a notable shift in who ultimately pays for the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. Economists led by Jan Hatzius find that, through June, American consumers have been responsible for only 22% of those tariff costs, while U.S. businesses have absorbed the remaining share. That balance appears to be … Read more