Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the gold price at the end of 2025 to $3,700 per ounce, an increase from its earlier projection of $3,300. The bank attributes the upward revision to stronger-than-anticipated central bank buying and a notable rise in inflows to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to Goldman, central banks have been more active buyers than expected, supporting demand for bullion and tightening available supplies. At the same time, investors have shifted toward gold ETFs amid growing concerns about a potential recession, lifting fund flows and adding upward pressure on prices.
Goldman also outlines a downside scenario tied to economic outcomes: if a recession actually materializes, the bank says ETF inflows could accelerate further, pushing gold prices even higher—potentially to about $3,880 per ounce by the end of 2025. This scenario reflects the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset that investors often seek during periods of economic stress.
The revised forecast underscores how central bank purchases and investor behavior in ETFs are key drivers for gold markets. By combining persistent official-sector demand with heightened retail and institutional interest, Goldman’s outlook signals stronger support for precious metals through 2025.
Investors should note that forecasts are subject to change as macroeconomic conditions evolve, and price paths for commodities like gold depend on many variables including interest rates, currency movements, and geopolitical developments. Goldman’s update highlights the bank’s view that recent flows and policy-driven demand make higher price levels more likely than previously anticipated.