Is the U.S. Government Insolvent? What the Numbers Reveal

🌅 Morning News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
March 24^th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

The Treasury released figures that force a difficult question many outlets avoid: is the U.S. government effectively insolvent? Also — why gold is falling while a war rages, what’s really happening with oil prices, and why a major ETF CEO prefers hard assets right now.

Chevron’s Warning: What if the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed?

Oil markets swung sharply again on Tuesday. Brent crude recovered about 1.3% to roughly $101 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.3% to $90.19, trimming some losses after Brent plunged around 11% on Monday from a Friday peak above $112. That selloff followed an announcement that U.S. talks with Iran might be productive; traders initially rushed in and then pulled back as uncertainty returned.

But the underlying supply risk remains. Iranian state media said Tehran would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz except for ships tied to what it calls its “enemies,” a qualification that leaves much of the market unsure. Chevron’s CEO warned that the physical effects of a Hormuz disruption are still working through the global system and are not fully reflected in futures prices.

Goldman Sachs has cautioned that if flows through the strait remain near just 5% of normal for ten weeks, Brent could surpass its 2008 record—about $147 per barrel. In short, energy markets and inflation risks are far from resolved.

Gold’s Losing Streak Snaps — But the Pressure Isn’t Gone

On Tuesday gold finally broke a near-record 10-day losing run. Since the Middle East conflict began, bullion had fallen more than 15%, so the bounce was modest and tentative. The broader pressure on the yellow metal, however, remains.

The recent pattern is familiar: conflict tends to push energy prices up, which raises inflation expectations. That in turn prompts central banks to consider higher interest rates—bad news for gold, which pays no yield. At the same time, traders with profitable positions in other markets have been liquidating gold to cover losses elsewhere, turning gold into a source of liquidity rather than a safe haven.

Spot gold reached around $4,425 per ounce in London trading, while silver rose to roughly $70.06. Those short-term figures look discouraging, but analysts note history shows this can reverse. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gold initially fell sharply and then resumed its upward trend once markets adjusted. The monetary forces that support gold—central bank buying, rising institutional allocations, and concerns about fiscal health—haven’t disappeared.

Why Is Russia Selling Gold at a 23-Year High?

Most central banks are adding to their gold holdings right now; Russia is an exception and that divergence signals financial stress. Russian authorities sold about 15 metric tons from reserves in the first two months of 2026—the biggest drawdown since 2002.

The sales are being driven by a widening fiscal gap. Russia’s federal budget deficit exceeded roughly $183 billion over 2022–2025, and another $42.7 billion was added in January and February 2026 alone. Officials are also trying to conserve hard currencies that they can access, such as the yuan, because Western sanctions have frozen an estimated $300 billion in Russian assets held abroad. That constraint limits Moscow’s options.

There is a sharp irony: gold accounts for about 47% of Russia’s reported international reserves, yet a significant portion of Russia’s foreign assets remain frozen and inaccessible. On paper the country appears to hold large gold reserves, but in practice it has been forced to convert some into liquidity.

Is Gold a Better Bet Than Bitcoin Right Now?

Jonathan Steinberg, CEO of WisdomTree, is unequivocal: yes. In an interview he said gold and other metals are a stronger alternative to the U.S. dollar than Bitcoin—a notable position from an executive who has invested in digital-asset products.

Steinberg argues the “digital gold” label no longer fits because tokenized, fully backed gold already exists on blockchain platforms. With gold’s strong calendar-year performance in 2025—the best since 1979—and with central banks and institutions increasing allocations, the view that hard assets are a viable hedge against dollar weakness is gaining wider acceptance.

Did the U.S. Government Just Admit It’s Insolvent?

That question has moved from the fringes to the center of the conversation because of new federal accounting numbers. The Treasury’s FY 2025 consolidated financial statements quietly show $47.78 trillion in liabilities versus $6.06 trillion in assets—a net position of negative $41.72 trillion. That shortfall worsened by $2.07 trillion in a single year.

Key drivers include about a $2 trillion rise in federal debt and interest payable, and a $438.8 billion increase in projected federal employee and veterans’ benefits. Off the official balance sheet, the 75-year unfunded social insurance gap expanded by $10.1 trillion to reach $88.4 trillion, largely due to shortfalls in Medicare Part B and Social Security. Combined, total federal obligations exceed $136 trillion—roughly five times U.S. GDP.

To put it in household terms, divide those totals by 100 million and federal finances look like a family earning $52,000 a year, spending $73,000, holding $60,000 in assets and owing $1.36 million. That comparison illustrates more than just high debt: it describes a balance sheet that is effectively insolvent. The Government Accountability Office has refused to certify these statements for 29 consecutive years.

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