Gold Surges as Markets Price in 74% Chance of Fed Rate Cut

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 24th, 2025

Gold Holds Steady as Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump

Gold prices were trading near $4,080 per ounce on Monday, rising about 0.4% as investors priced in a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Odds of a cut climbed sharply after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, lifting market expectations from roughly 40% to the mid-70% range. That shift has supported gold despite a firmer dollar that typically weighs on the metal by making it more expensive for overseas buyers.

Not all Fed officials share the same view. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has advocated keeping rates steady “for a time,” and other regional Fed leaders from Chicago and Cleveland have warned that premature cuts could pose risks. Those mixed signals keep the path forward uncertain and suggest volatility could persist in the weeks ahead.

Analysts note a tension between factors that usually help gold—lower real rates and currency weakness—and the immediate headwind of a stronger dollar. Absent new geopolitical shocks or clear policy direction, many expect a neutral to slightly negative tone for prices in the near term. For now, the market will be watching Fed communications and incoming economic data for cues on whether the easing narrative remains intact.

Treasury Chief Says Tariffs Don’t Drive Inflation — Data Disagrees

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued that tariffs are not a primary driver of inflation, attributing price pressures mainly to the service sector. His remarks came as the administration eased tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, beef and tropical fruits.

But recent data paint a different picture. Consumer Price Index figures show inflation rose from 2.3% in April—before the tariffs were implemented—to about 3.0% in September. Research from the St. Louis Fed also suggests tariffs contributed roughly 0.5 percentage points to PCE inflation over the summer months. Those findings indicate that trade policy has likely played a material role in recent price dynamics.

The dispute matters for monetary policy and markets. If inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target for longer, plans for rate cuts could be delayed or reduced, which changes the outlook for interest-rate-sensitive assets. Precious metals like gold and silver often benefit from persistent inflation and currency concerns, so investors are monitoring the debate closely as they position for potential policy adjustments.

UBS Says Silver’s Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity

After a correction from recent highs around $54.50 per ounce, UBS reiterated a bullish view on silver, maintaining a $55 target by mid-2026. The bank characterizes the pullback as profit-taking by momentum traders rather than a fundamental reversal, and it expects silver to resume outperformance if certain conditions hold.

UBS projects the gold-to-silver ratio could tighten to roughly 76:1 and possibly approach 70:1, which would imply silver gaining versus gold. The firm also forecasts that ETF holdings could climb past their previous record of about 1,021 million ounces, driven by softer rates, global debt concerns and potential dollar weakness. UBS’s scenario assumes gold will reach about $4,200 per ounce, a level it sees as supportive for silver’s advance.

For investors seeking entry points in precious metals, UBS views current silver prices as an attractive opportunity, though it cautions that timing and volatility remain risks. Market participants are watching ETF flows and macro signals for confirmation of a sustained rally.

World Gold Council Weighs in on What’s Next for Gold

The World Gold Council’s latest Unearthed podcast examines where gold prices might head next, reviewing recent market moves and the potential impact of political developments in Washington. Hosts and guests analyze sentiment reported at the LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference in Kyoto, where industry leaders discussed supply chain issues, central bank purchases and evolving investor demand.

With gold trading above $4,000 for much of the year despite intermittent pullbacks, the Council considers whether the market still has room to run or if a period of consolidation is more likely. The discussion provides useful context for investors tracking macro drivers, central bank behavior and longer-term demand fundamentals.

Senate Bill Targets First Real US Gold Audit in Decades

A recently introduced Senate bill, S.3218, would require a thorough, credible audit of U.S. government gold holdings—the first of its kind in decades—and mandate that reserve purity be updated to current global standards. The measure also calls for audits every five years.

The last full audit of Fort Knox dates back to 1953. While official figures list the United States as holding more than 8,100 tonnes of gold—the largest official reserve globally—skeptics have questioned the visibility and condition of those holdings for years. If enacted, the legislation would increase transparency around custody and quality of sovereign gold stockpiles and could influence investor sentiment about official reserves.

For metal markets, renewed scrutiny of bullion reserves and clearer reporting standards could alter perceptions of supply reliability and drive fresh interest from investors who view tangible assets as a hedge against policy and currency uncertainty.