CPI Rises to 3.3% While GDP Stalls — Is 2026 Stagflation Incoming?

🌅 Morning News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
April 10^th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

March CPI jumped to 3.3% while Q4 GDP sits at just 0.5%. The stagflation 2026 scenario economists warned about is now showing up in the data.

March CPI Comes in at 3.3%

The March Consumer Price Index landed at 8:30 AM ET and confirmed market concerns: headline inflation rose to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest annual rate since May 2024. That’s a sharp jump from February’s 2.4% and the largest one-month acceleration in years.

U.S. Consumer Price Index

Year-over-year % change · Jan. 2021–March 2026

All items

Less food and energy

Note: All months seasonally adjusted except March 2026
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Data as of April 10, 2026 · Chart by GoldSilver

Monthly prices rose 0.9% — the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February. A significant factor was fuel: the Iran war pushed gasoline above $4 per gallon nationally, and one economist called it the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957.

Inflation is only part of the story. The final Q4 2025 GDP revision released yesterday showed annualized growth of just 0.5%, down from the initial 1.4% estimate. Some firms described the downward revision as staggering. Real consumer spending rose only 0.1% in February while personal income declined. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the PCE index, was 2.8% in February — recorded before the recent escalation in the Middle East.

That mix leaves the Fed in a difficult position: slower growth on one side and rising inflation on the other. Cutting rates to revive growth risks reigniting inflation; holding rates steady risks a deeper stall. March FOMC minutes indicated some policymakers even discussed the possibility of a rate hike. Later this morning at 10:00 AM ET, the University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will be released. March’s one-year inflation expectation jumped to 3.8% from 3.4%; another rise would strengthen the stagflation argument.

What’s Keeping Gold Supported Near $4,770?

Gold traded near $4,770 per ounce Friday morning and was set for a third straight weekly gain of roughly 2%. The price action has included violent swings — a midweek 3.3% spike on ceasefire news followed by a near-complete reversal — but the overall trend has been upward.

Central bank purchases are one factor. While January’s official buying slowed to about 5 tonnes compared with 2025’s monthly average of 27 tonnes, accumulation continues across a growing number of nations: Malaysia, South Korea, Uzbekistan and China all added reserves. The persistence of buying matters more than any single month’s totals.

Geopolitical risk also supports bullion. The ceasefire remains fragile, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively constrained, and oil briefly bounced above $100 intraday. Israel’s operations in Lebanon threaten to undo parts of the truce, keeping safe-haven demand alive.

March’s hot CPI reading could push rate-cut expectations further into the future: CME futures showed no probability of an April cut. Structural forces behind gold’s advance — deglobalization, fiscal dominance, central bank accumulation and currency debasement — remain in place and could accelerate if stagflation emerges more clearly.

A potential political catalyst looms this weekend: Vice President JD Vance will lead a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials. If those discussions break down, expect gold to gap higher on Monday. Silver, after a ceasefire-driven surge, traded near $75; the gold-silver ratio around 63–64 suggests silver has not fully matched gold’s war-risk premium.

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Why Is the Strait of Hormuz Still Closed Despite the Ceasefire?

The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is barely 48 hours old and already showing signs of strain. The central promise — reopening the Strait of Hormuz — has not been fulfilled. Ship tracking shows only a handful of crossings since the truce began, compared with roughly 140 daily transits before the conflict. Hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, including many loaded oil tankers.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s CEO said the strait is not open; access is being restricted and conditioned, which he characterized as coercion rather than freedom of navigation. The situation is further complicated by renewed Israeli operations in Lebanon, which occurred hours after the truce was announced and included large-scale strikes across several regions. Lebanon’s health ministry reported hundreds killed and many more wounded.

Political confusion persists about the ceasefire’s scope: Israel says it excludes Lebanon, Iran denies that, Pakistan — a mediator — says Lebanon is included, and the U.S. has backed Israel’s interpretation. Tehran warned that continued attacks on Lebanon could prompt renewed closure of the strait. Public commentary from U.S. and Iranian officials has been blunt and uncompromising. Oil briefly traded above $100 intraday before settling lower, and Brent was trading near the high $90s by Friday morning.

Vice President Vance’s delegation to Islamabad this weekend will be an important test. If those talks fail, the window for the two-week ceasefire will narrow and pressure on energy markets and safe-haven assets will likely increase.

Bank of America Says Commodities Will Surge for Years

Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett argues that commodities are entering a prolonged period of outperformance. The case is structural: after years when monetary easing and fiscal restraint favored bonds and equities, the 2020s have shifted toward fiscal expansion, deglobalization and policies that favor real assets.

Hartnett noted oil and energy as a contrarian trade heading into 2026; a strong rally would push WTI toward his target range and oil briefly topped $100 during recent trading. He also warned that current conditions bear an uncomfortable resemblance to 2007–2008, when oil doubled before the global financial crisis and credit tightened behind the scenes. His recommendations include tactical rules for positioning across commodities, Treasuries and equities, and a preference for commodities, international stocks and emerging markets over U.S. mega-cap technology.

The implication for gold is clear: the same macro forces supporting commodities — fiscal expansion, supply constraints and central bank behavior — also underpin gold’s rally, though they carry the risk of market dislocation if credit conditions deteriorate sharply.

Could a New EU-US Minerals Deal Reshape the Global Resource Map?

The EU and U.S. are close to an agreement on critical minerals aimed at reducing Western reliance on China, which currently dominates mining and processing for many essential inputs to defense, energy and technology. The draft plan contemplates incentives such as minimum price guarantees for non-Chinese suppliers, coordinated standards, joint investments and joint responses to supply disruptions.

China still controls a major share of rare earth mining and an even larger share of processing capacity. Since 2023, Beijing has tightened export controls on several strategic materials, demonstrating how supply cutoffs can play out in practice. In response, the U.S. and EU are pursuing partnerships and trade arrangements with alternative suppliers, and countries like Australia have moved to remove tariffs on critical minerals.

The result could be a slower but more diversified supply chain for strategic inputs, which matters for energy transition technologies, defense supply chains and broader industrial policy — and it is another factor that favors investment in real assets, including certain metals and commodities.

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SOURCES

1. CNBC — CPI Inflation Report: March 2026

2. Yahoo Finance — Gold Heads for Weekly Gain as Traders Weigh Rate Outlook

3. Yahoo Finance — Trump Says Optimistic on Iran Despite Ceasefire Strain

4. Bloomberg — BofA’s Hartnett Sees Commodities Surge Lasting Years

5. Bloomberg — EU and US Near Critical Minerals Deal to Combat Chinese Control

6. IEA — With New Export Controls on Critical Minerals, Supply Concentration Risks Become Reality

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.