Speculative traders have cut their net long positions by about 55% since September, reaching a 14-month low, yet gold has still climbed roughly 28% year-to-date — a performance that already exceeds many analysts’ 2025 forecasts.
Two notable trends have emerged. First, gold is posting its largest gains outside of US trading hours while showing weaker performance during active US pit trading. Second, flows are diverging geographically: Western ETFs have seen a decline of around 1 million ounces recently, while Chinese ETFs have already exceeded their total inflows for 2024.
Silver, however, has not kept pace with gold. The gold-to-silver ratio remains above 100, reflecting silver’s relative underperformance. That underperformance is driven in part by silver’s greater industrial exposure and a slowdown in Chinese solar-panel production, factors that have weighed on demand for the metal.