Markets Eye Friday CPI as Credit Card Debt Reaches Record High

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
February 12^th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

Markets Brace for Friday’s U.S. Inflation Report

Friday’s CPI report could change the near-term outlook for U.S. inflation and gold, as investors seek further evidence that price pressures are easing. Economists expect inflation to continue cooling in January, and market participants will read the report for confirmation that recent disinflation trends are durable.

Surveys from Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal point to headline inflation near 2.5% year over year for January, down from 2.7% in December — a pace that would be the slowest in nearly five years. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecast at about 2.5%, a level that would mark its weakest reading since 2021. Those anticipated readings, if realized, would reinforce the narrative that inflation is gradually moving back toward more normal levels.

Several components — notably gasoline and rental costs — have shown signs of stabilization or modest declines, helping the overall CPI to cool. For the Federal Reserve, this print is consequential: a softer report could reduce immediate pressure to hike rates further and support a patient, “wait-and-see” policy stance. That said, markets currently price only a limited chance of near-term cuts, so the headline reaction may focus on nuance in the details rather than the top-line numbers alone.

For gold and other hard assets, the implications are mixed. Cooler inflation tends to temper gold’s short-term upside because it reduces the urgency for inflation hedging. At the same time, long-term structural forces — persistent fiscal deficits, rising sovereign borrowing, and recurring geopolitical risks — continue to underpin demand for tangible stores of value. In short, a single CPI print can move markets briefly, but the broader macro picture still supports sustained interest in precious metals.

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Resilient Labor Market Lifts Dollar, Weighs on Metals

Gold pulled back after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which diminished near-term odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The data reinforced the view that the economy remains more resilient than many investors had anticipated, supporting higher Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar — both headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold.

When yields rise and the dollar strengthens, gold typically faces selling pressure because it does not offer interest income. That dynamic helps explain the short-term retreat in bullion prices. Still, this reaction is often temporary: investors weigh the immediate policy implications alongside longer-term concerns such as fiscal deficits and geopolitical uncertainty that continue to support demand for safe-haven assets.

The jobs report underlines an economy that can sustain growth even as consumers and some businesses show signs of strain. Markets have broadly embraced a soft-landing narrative — the idea that inflation can fall back to acceptable levels without triggering a deep recession — but that outcome is not guaranteed. Beneath aggregate figures, household balance sheets are showing increasing stress, which could feed through to consumption and overall growth if borrowing costs remain elevated.

U.S. Credit Card Debt Climbs to $1.28 Trillion Record

U.S. credit card balances rose to a record $1.28 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Revolving credit increased by about $44 billion in three months, continuing a pattern of rising consumer borrowing that has important implications for spending patterns and financial stability.

Persistently high prices and interest rates that, for many cards, exceed 20% are forcing some households to use credit for ordinary expenses rather than discretionary purchases. Delinquency rates have also climbed, concentrated among younger borrowers and lower-income households — reinforcing a K-shaped recovery where financial outcomes diverge across the population.

If financing costs stay high, a growing portion of household income could be devoted to debt service, crowding out other consumption and weighing on growth. For markets and policymakers, rising consumer leverage is a risk to monitor closely: it can amplify downturns and slow any recovery in spending if incomes or employment weaken.

Copper Continues Rally as Metals Demand Outlook Brightens

Benchmark copper rose on the London Metal Exchange, extending a wider metals rally driven by tightening supply, a softer dollar, and sustained investor interest in base metals tied to industrial demand.

Market participants are betting that global manufacturing — especially in Asia — will remain resilient. Demand linked to electrification, renewable energy deployment and expansion of AI and data infrastructure is expected to support copper consumption over the medium term. Those structural drivers give traders confidence that tighter market conditions will persist.

Supply-side pressures are also significant. Falling ore grades, constrained mine capacity and low inventories have limited output, while temporary shifts in Chinese buying around the Lunar New Year created short-term volatility. Overall, the balance of stronger demand expectations and constrained supply has kept prices elevated even as investors weigh broader macro risks.

Pentagon to Buy Coal: New Energy Directive

In a notable policy move, the president ordered the Department of Defense to prioritize electricity purchases from coal-fired power plants, directing long-term power purchase agreements and allocating approximately $175 million to upgrade several coal facilities across multiple states.

The administration frames the directive as a national security action to secure reliable baseload power for military installations, particularly during extreme weather. Critics note that coal is one of the most carbon-intensive fossil fuels and argue that promoting it conflicts with broader climate and clean-energy goals. Legal challenges from states and utilities contesting the move argue it could raise costs and exceed federal authority.

While energy policy changes typically affect markets gradually rather than overnight, long-term contracts and regulatory shifts can change regional energy economics and investment incentives. Observers will watch how this directive interacts with broader trends in generation, grid resilience and private-sector planning.

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