Citi Reaffirms $3,500 Short-Term Gold Target Amid Tariffs and Geopolitical Risk

Citi has reaffirmed its short-term price target for gold at $3,500 per ounce, pointing to rising tariffs and heightened geopolitical risk as the main drivers behind the call. The bank also revised its near-term gold forecast upward, expanding the range from a prior $3,000–$3,300 to $3,100–$3,500 per ounce, while reiterating a more cautious stance for the longer-term outlook.

The revised range and the $3,500 target reflect Citi’s view that ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to keep safe-haven demand elevated for the metal in the near term. Tariff escalations can increase inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains, factors that historically support interest in gold as a hedge. Similarly, geopolitical tensions often spur investor flows into precious metals, strengthening prices temporarily even as longer-term fundamentals remain subject to monetary policy and macroeconomic shifts.

Citi expects the market to evolve through a period of consolidation, forecasting that prices will stabilize in the second half of 2025. By consolidation, the bank means a phase in which wild price swings ease and the market settles within a narrower trading band. This projected stabilization is tied to two interrelated expectations: a potential easing of trade tensions and a series of policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. If trade relations improve and central banks become less aggressive in tightening, those developments could reduce gold’s rally-driven momentum and lead to more measured price action.

Despite the bullish near-term signals, Citi maintains a cautious long-term perspective. That cautious outlook recognizes that gold’s path over an extended horizon will be shaped by factors including interest rate trajectories, currency movements, and broader economic conditions. A less supportive macro backdrop or a sustained period of stronger monetary tightening could limit upside beyond the bank’s short-term targets.

In addition to gold, Citi has set short-term targets for other precious metals. The bank’s near-term estimates place palladium at $1,050 per ounce and platinum at $900 per ounce. These figures indicate differentiated expectations across the metals complex: palladium and platinum respond to industrial demand dynamics and automotive sector trends, while gold is more directly influenced by safe-haven flows and monetary policy considerations.

For investors and market observers, Citi’s updated forecast underscores several practical takeaways. First, the firm’s upward revision signals that elevated risk from trade disputes and geopolitical hotspots remains a key input into asset allocation decisions. Second, the anticipated consolidation period suggests that, after an initial run-up, price volatility could moderate—offering different trading and hedging opportunities compared with earlier, more volatile phases. Third, the divergence between near-term optimism and long-term caution highlights the importance of timeframe when setting exposure to precious metals.

Overall, Citi’s reassessment keeps gold firmly in focus as a near-term beneficiary of risk-off dynamics, while reminding market participants that the metal’s longer-term trajectory will depend on how macroeconomic and policy conditions unfold. Alongside gold, the specified short-term targets for palladium and platinum provide additional reference points for investors tracking the broader metals market in 2025.