Is the US Government Insolvent? Fiscal Numbers Explained

🌅 Morning News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
March 24^th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor

The Treasury released figures that raise a question few outlets are asking: is the U.S. government effectively insolvent? Plus — why gold is falling even as conflict rages, what’s really happening with oil prices, and why one major ETF CEO is doubling down on hard assets.

Chevron’s Warning: What if the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed?

Oil markets swung again on Tuesday. Brent crude recovered about 1.3% to near $101 a barrel, while WTI rose roughly 2.3% to $90.19, trimming losses after Brent had plunged roughly 11% on Monday from a Friday peak above $112. The earlier drop followed an announcement by former President Trump about productive talks with Iran, which briefly eased fears before traders grew cautious again.

But the underlying supply risk remains. Iranian state media said Tehran will allow “safe transit” through the Strait of Hormuz except for vessels tied to its declared “enemies,” a distinction that leaves much of the market uncertain about which shipments will be affected. Chevron’s CEO warned that the physical impacts of a partial or full closure are still filtering through global supply chains and are not fully reflected in futures prices.

Goldman Sachs has signaled that if flows through Hormuz stay near 5% of normal for ten weeks, Brent could push past its 2008 record of roughly $147 per barrel. In short: energy markets — and by extension inflation readings — remain exposed to significant risk.

Gold’s Losing Streak Snaps — But the Pressure Isn’t Gone

Gold ended a near-record 10-day slide on Tuesday. The metal had dropped more than 15% since the Middle East conflict began, so the bounce was modest and the broader pressure remains intact.

The recent selloff follows a familiar wartime pattern. Conflicts typically lift energy prices, which increases inflation worries and pushes central banks toward tighter policy. Higher rates are a direct headwind for gold, which pays no yield. At the same time, traders frequently liquidate gold holdings to raise cash and cover losses elsewhere, turning gold into a funding source rather than a safe haven in the short run.

Spot gold reached $4,425 per ounce during London trading, and silver climbed to $70.06. Those short-term levels look weak, but history offers perspective: in 2022 gold dropped sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only to resume its advance once market uncertainty eased. The monetary fundamentals haven’t changed, so a recovery remains possible once volatility subsides.

Why Is Russia Selling Gold at a 23-Year High?

While most central banks continue to buy gold, Russia has been selling from its reserves — a sign of mounting fiscal stress. Moscow reportedly sold about 15 metric tons of official gold in the first two months of 2026, the largest drawdown since 2002.

The sales reflect a widening budget shortfall: Russia’s federal deficit has ballooned across 2022–2025, with an additional $42.7 billion gap in just the first two months of this year. Beyond filling budget holes, analysts say these sales are meant to conserve usable foreign currency — particularly yuan — because Western sanctions have frozen roughly $300 billion of Russian assets abroad, leaving Moscow fewer options to finance imports and government spending.

The situation is paradoxical: gold accounts for about 47% of Russia’s reported international reserves, yet a large portion of its global assets remain inaccessible. On paper Russia is a major gold holder; in practice, the country is selling gold to manage immediate liquidity needs.

Is Gold a Better Bet Than Bitcoin Right Now?

WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg gave a clear answer: yes. In an interview he argued that gold and other metals are a stronger alternative to the U.S. dollar than Bitcoin — notable coming from an executive who has built digital-asset products.

Steinberg rejects the popular “digital gold” label for Bitcoin. He points out that tokenized, fully backed gold already exists on blockchains, making direct comparisons less compelling. The broader point: with central banks accumulating gold, institutional allocations rising, and fiscal deficits undermining confidence in the dollar, hard assets are attracting growing support from large investors.

Did the U.S. Government Just Admit It’s Insolvent?

The idea that the U.S. government could be effectively insolvent has long been confined to fringe debate. But the Treasury’s FY2025 consolidated financial statements, released with little coverage, make the question harder to ignore. The report lists about $47.78 trillion in liabilities and roughly $6.06 trillion in assets, implying a net negative position near $41.72 trillion — a deterioration of about $2.07 trillion in a single year.

Major drivers include a roughly $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable, together with a $438.8 billion rise in federal employee and veteran benefit obligations. Off-balance-sheet calculations add further strain: the 75-year unfunded social insurance shortfall widened by $10.1 trillion to $88.4 trillion, largely due to anticipated Medicare and Social Security gaps. Combined, these figures suggest total federal obligations could exceed $136 trillion — roughly five times U.S. GDP.

To put it in everyday terms: scale the numbers down by a factor of 100 million and the federal finances resemble a household earning $52,000 a year that spends $73,000 and owes $1.36 million while holding only $60,000 in assets. That picture goes beyond manageable debt — it looks insolvent. That stark comparison is likely why independent auditors and the GAO have long declined to certify these statements.

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