Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed a bullish long-term outlook for gold, projecting significant price appreciation over the next year and beyond. The firm’s updated forecast sets a base-case target of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and anticipates further upside to about $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
In its analysis, Goldman highlights scenarios that could push prices above the base case. A recessionary environment, the bank says, would likely accelerate inflows into gold-backed ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets, driving prices toward approximately $3,880 per ounce. That dynamic reflects gold’s historical role as a portfolio diversifier and a store of value during periods of economic stress.
Goldman also outlines more extreme risk scenarios that could produce markedly higher levels. Events such as perceived threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence or a significant change in U.S. reserve policy could intensify demand for gold as a non-sovereign asset. Under those stressed conditions, the bank suggests gold prices could surge as high as $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025.
These projections are part of Goldman Sachs’ broader view that structural forces support gold’s ascent. Persistent global uncertainties, elevated government debt levels, and monetary policy responses to economic shocks all contribute to a favorable environment for precious metals. Investors monitoring central bank behavior, inflation trends, and liquidity conditions may find these factors particularly relevant when assessing the potential trajectory for gold prices.
While the forecasts offer a range of possible outcomes, they underscore Goldman’s conviction that gold’s role as a defensive asset will remain important. Market participants weighing allocations to gold should consider the scenarios Goldman outlines—base case recovery, recession-driven safe-haven flows, and high-risk policy shocks—and how each could influence demand, ETF flows, and price discovery over the coming months.