Goldman Sachs and UBS have issued sharply more optimistic forecasts for gold, lifting their price targets as investor interest in the metal strengthens. Goldman Sachs now projects gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2024 and climb to $4,000 by mid-2026. UBS is similarly bullish, forecasting $3,500 per ounce by December 2025.
Those revised targets come after a recent strong rally in the gold market. Gold jumped 6.6% in a single week, pushing spot prices above $3,245 per ounce and setting a fresh record. Both banks had already raised their outlooks in March, and the latest updates reinforce a growing consensus among major financial institutions that gold’s upside is becoming more pronounced amid ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its assumptions about central bank demand, increasing its estimate of monthly central bank gold purchases from 70 tons to 80 tons. The firm continues to recommend a long position on gold, noting that higher recession risk could drive further inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Goldman now places the probability of a recession at about 45%, and says that in a recessionary scenario gold could reach approximately $3,880 per ounce by year-end.
UBS’s outlook aligns with this view of stronger fundamentals. The bank points to sustained demand from institutional investors and central banks, together with portfolio diversification and safe-haven buying during periods of market stress, as key drivers that could push prices toward its $3,500 target by late 2025.
Market participants are weighing several factors that could sustain gold’s momentum. Elevated geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policies, and slower global growth have increased the appeal of gold as both a hedge and a store of value. Additionally, continued purchases by central banks and steady ETF inflows support a tighter supply-demand balance that may underpin higher prices over the medium term.
Analysts note that gold’s reaction to real interest rates and the U.S. dollar will be important to monitor. Lower real yields and a weaker dollar historically correlate with stronger gold performance, while rising real rates and a firmer dollar can cap gains. However, with central bank buying projected to remain robust and recession risks elevated, the recent forecasts from Goldman Sachs and UBS reflect a cautious-to-bullish view that gold could continue to outperform other assets as investors seek stability.
While the precise timing and magnitude of future gains remain uncertain, the message from these large financial institutions is clear: the balance of risks now favors higher gold prices than previously expected. Investors considering exposure to gold should weigh the potential upside highlighted by these forecasts against the usual volatility and macroeconomic factors that influence precious-metal markets.