How 5 Institutions Just Changed Owning Gold and Silver

Gold traded near $4,279 an ounce on Friday, while silver held around $63.92. Both metals are still digesting the pullback sparked by this week’s Federal Reserve actions. Yet the immediate price moves are only part of the story. Over the past 24 hours five institutional developments matter more for the medium-term outlook: a major Wall Street bank revised its price forecasts, a state-owned Taiwanese bank launched a physical gold custody service, a U.S. tokenization firm introduced a product that channels gold-lease income to retail holders, Hong Kong signaled possible sovereign buying, and a U.S. mint chief warned of a silver refining backlog. Taken together, these moves show that access to physical gold and silver—and the market plumbing that supports it—is being rebuilt in real time.

Is Wall Street’s Own Gold Forecast Splitting in Two?

Not splitting so much as adjusting on timing. Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas cut the bank’s end-2026 gold estimate to $4,650 per ounce from $4,900, a move tied to the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike and expectations for further tightening. Goldman’s economists now see another possible hike in October, which has already weighed on ETF flows and near-term demand. That said, the bank kept its end-2027 target at $5,400 an ounce. Thomas’ bullish long-term outlook rests largely on persistent official-sector buying: central-bank and sovereign purchases have averaged roughly 90 tonnes per month since 2022 versus a pre-2022 average near 17 tonnes. That sustained official demand, she argues, explains most of Goldman’s projected 23% rise through 2027. The bank also shifted its assumed timing for Fed cuts—now expecting three cuts spread from late 2027 into early 2028—so the timetable moved but the ultimate price destination did not.

Why Is a State-Owned Taiwanese Bank Opening a Gold Custody Desk?

Bank of Taiwan, the island’s largest bank and a government-owned institution, has launched a wealth unit focused on high-net-worth clients with a formal physical gold custody service. This move mirrors a broader trend across Asia where private banks are turning bullion demand into structured services. Singapore’s OCBC, for example, introduced a custody arm earlier this year after seeing strong bar demand. Taiwan’s cultural affinity for physical gold, combined with Bank of Taiwan’s long history in selling bullion—it became the country’s top gold seller after absorbing the former state import agency—makes the new custody offering a logical evolution. A formal custody product changes how the bank treats gold demand: it becomes a recurring, institutional-style business line rather than merely retail counter sales. The difference between who stores the metal and who owns it is increasingly consequential as more institutions and wealthy clients look for secure, professional vaulting and reporting.

Can You Now Earn Yield on Gold Without Giving It Up?

Paxos Labs, the regulated U.S. issuer behind PAX Gold, launched a new token called PAXGy that aims to capture institutional gold-leasing income and pass it to token holders. Traditionally, gold leasing has been the domain of bullion banks, refiners, miners and jewelers who pay to borrow physical gold. PAXGy allows ordinary holders to tap that income: users deposit PAX Gold tokens or eligible stablecoins, those reserves are lent to vetted institutional borrowers, and the returns are reflected in a rising exchange rate between PAXGy and its backing token rather than through additional token issuance. In practical terms, holders could eventually redeem for more gold than they originally deposited. The product uses cross-chain infrastructure and decentralized exchanges to operate, representing another step toward formalizing tokenized gold as a distinct asset class and widening retail access to institutional-style returns.

Is Hong Kong About to Become a New Sovereign Gold Buyer?

It is possible and could happen soon. Hong Kong’s Deputy Financial Secretary recently said he is confident the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will make prudent decisions regarding any gold holdings managed in the Exchange Fund. The government’s 2026 Policy Address included a proposal to consider expanding gold reserves as part of a plan to strengthen Hong Kong’s role as a commodities-trading hub, using gold as a strategic entry point. Authorities stopped short of disclosing current gold holdings, citing financial-stability considerations. If Hong Kong were to add itself to the ranks of active sovereign buyers, it would incrementally increase official-sector demand and add another sizeable balance sheet to markets already absorbing near-record central-bank purchases.

Why Is Silver Backed Up for Months Even Though Supply Looks Fine?

The bottleneck in the silver supply chain has shifted downstream. According to the Scottsdale Mint CEO, U.S. silver refining capacity is currently running three to four months behind, creating delays between mined output and finished investment-grade product. Geopolitical shifts and a preference for refineries seen as more aligned with U.S. supply chains have redirected flows and amplified pressure on certain processing facilities. That said, finished silver available for investors isn’t generally scarce today; retail and investment-grade coins and bars remain findable in many markets. The stress is upstream—processing and refining capacity—and years of underinvestment, plus slow permitting for new facilities, could eventually push strain back toward mine production. For investors and dealers, the practical takeaway is longer lead times for newly minted product and more complex logistics around vaulting and delivery.

---

SOURCES
1. BigGo Finance — Goldman Holds $5,400 Gold Target, Trims Near-Term View After Fed Hike
2. Hubbis — Bank of Taiwan Launches High-Net-Worth Wealth Business With Physical Gold Custody Service
3. PR Newswire — Paxos Labs Launches PAXGy, a PAXG-Backed Token that Grows in Gold Terms
4. The Standard — HKMA Will Make Wise Investment Decisions on Exchange Fund’s Gold Holding: Michael Wong
5. MINING.COM — Silver’s Bottleneck Is at the Refinery, Not the Vault, Scottsdale Mint CEO Says

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

You May Also Like:

• Gold and Silver Rebound as the Dollar and Treasury Yields Take a Pause
• India’s Gold Imports Fell 58%. Silver Imports Rose 127%.
• Municipal Bonds Just Broke a 15-Year Record. Gold Doesn’t Have This Problem.
• Washington Sold $70 Billion in Debt. Wall Street Only Wanted Part of It.
• Gold’s Price Barely Moved. Five Institutions Repositioned Anyway.
• Iran Repeated Its Hormuz Demand at the UN. The Market Already Priced It In.
• Today’s PMI Beat Cuts Gold Two Ways. Only One Side Has Been Priced In.
• Gold Fell 1.7% Today. Silver Fell 3.6%. Five Signals Point at the Dollar, Not Demand.
• Xi Lands in Washington. Gold and Silver Both Retreat, and Silver Falls Harder.