Gold Jumps 11% in September After DC Government Shutdown

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
October 2nd, 2025

Gold Extends Rally to Five Days

Gold extended its winning streak to a fifth day, trading near $3,880 per ounce as markets digest political tensions at the Federal Reserve and the start of a U.S. government shutdown. Silver remained steady around $47.50 per ounce.

September delivered the standout move: gold rose about 11% in a single month, one of its strongest monthly gains in recent memory. That performance reflects a broader shift into safe-haven assets as investors respond to growing uncertainty around U.S. policy, potential Fed rate paths, and volatility across bond markets.

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This sustained advance suggests more than short-term positioning: investors appear to be hedging against a weaker dollar, prolonged market volatility, and expectations that the Fed may cut rates well into 2025. That shifting backdrop has investors rethinking allocations to gold as both a tactical hedge and a longer-term portfolio diversifier.

Government Shutdown Begins Amid Healthcare Clash

The U.S. government officially shut down after Congress failed to agree on funding. A subsequent vote to reopen the government collapsed when Senate Democrats insisted on extending health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. Without an agreement, many federal employees face furloughs and key economic data releases — including some jobs and inflation reports — may be delayed.

The impasse centers on tax credits that help millions afford insurance, which are due to expire at year-end unless lawmakers act. With both parties dug in, policy uncertainty has increased, complicating market forecasts and central bank decision-making. Historically, such political dysfunction has pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like gold as a hedge against heightened volatility and missing economic signals.

All eyes are now on upcoming data releases, particularly the jobs report, and whether those milestones will be published on schedule amid the shutdown.

Supreme Court Keeps Lisa Cook at the Fed

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook will remain in her seat at least until the Court hears arguments on a contested dismissal. President Trump has sought to remove her, raising the question of whether a president can dismiss a Fed governor without cause. The Court’s decision to let her stay pending review highlights the legal and political stakes surrounding Fed independence.

Any ruling that narrows the Fed’s autonomy could reshape investor expectations about monetary policy and political influence over the central bank. That uncertainty tends to increase demand for assets perceived as insulated from political interference, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Goldman Sachs: ‘Large Upside Risk’ for Gold

Analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that gold’s recent rally may have further to run. The bank sees “significant upside risk” for the metal if the Fed continues to ease policy and Washington remains gridlocked. In scenarios where private capital flows aggressively into gold, Goldman suggests prices could push toward $4,500 per ounce, with a more conservative path to above $4,000 by mid-2026.

Goldman’s view reinforces a growing narrative that gold is moving beyond a crisis-only hedge and toward a structural allocation for institutions and individual investors seeking protection against policy risk and inflation uncertainty.

Investor Outlook: Gold in a Stagflation World

The World Gold Council has highlighted the renewed risk of stagflation — a blend of slowing growth and persistent inflation. That environment typically pressures equities while lifting demand for tangible assets, benefiting gold as investors seek stability amid weakening growth prospects and rising prices.

With tariffs, political shocks, and uncertain Fed policy adding to downside risks for growth, gold’s role as a portfolio stabilizer is gaining traction. As the fourth quarter begins, the steady ascent of gold suggests many investors are already positioning for the combination of slower growth and higher inflation that characterizes stagflation.

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