Barrick Lowers 2025 Gold Outlook Amid Escalating Mali Mining Dispute

Barrick Mining has removed its Mali gold operations from its 2025 production forecast after a serious dispute with Mali’s government over newly proposed mining legislation.

The Loulo-Gounkoto complex, accounting for roughly 14% of Barrick’s overall production, has been idle since January following Mali’s decision to block gold exports and detain some company personnel.

The disagreement concerns revenue sharing and legal authority. Malian authorities are pushing for a larger share of mining revenues and for disputes to be handled in domestic courts rather than under foreign arbitration. Negotiations between Barrick and the government have continued, but a Malian court is due to consider appointing a provisional administrator—an outcome that would effectively strip Barrick of operational control of the mines if implemented.

The exclusion of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex from Barrick’s guidance reflects the uncertainty over access to the asset and its future governance. Until the legal and regulatory issues are resolved, Barrick has removed any production contribution from the site in its 2025 planning to avoid overstating expected output.

Investors and industry observers are watching closely, as the situation highlights a broader trend in several resource-rich countries where governments seek greater control over natural resources and a larger share of mining revenues. Such policy shifts can have significant implications for project economics, contractual stability, and international investment.

For Barrick, the immediate challenges include securing the safe return of staff, restoring the ability to export gold, and resolving the jurisdictional dispute over dispute resolution mechanisms. The potential appointment of a provisional administrator would raise additional operational and legal complications, while successful negotiations could lead to a revised agreement that preserves some level of company involvement under new terms.

While outcomes remain uncertain, the exclusion of Loulo-Gounkoto from 2025 guidance is a precautionary measure intended to ensure Barrick’s production targets remain realistic in the face of unresolved political and legal risk in Mali.