Gold Prices Jump as Fed Rate-Cut Odds Climb to 74 Percent

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 24th, 2025

Gold Holds Steady as Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump

Gold prices remained around $4,080 per ounce on Monday, edging up about 0.4% as rising market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December offset pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar. Traders sharply increased the odds of a rate reduction after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, with market-implied odds moving substantially higher compared with last Friday.

That shift in expectations is not unanimous across the Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan urged patience and suggested keeping rates on hold “for a time,” while leaders from the Chicago and Cleveland Fed banks cautioned that further cuts could pose significant risks. These divergent views mean policy decisions remain uncertain, and investors should be prepared for volatility as participants weigh inflation dynamics against growth and financial stability concerns.

The stronger dollar is a headwind for bullion because it raises the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, even though lower interest rates typically support non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Analysts warn of a generally flat to negative tone for precious metals over the coming weeks unless a new geopolitical event or clear economic surprise reorients flows. For now, markets are balancing the prospect of easier monetary policy with firm dollar strength and mixed central bank messaging.

Treasury Chief Says Tariffs Don’t Drive Inflation — Data Disagrees

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told viewers on NBC’s Meet the Press that the administration’s tariffs are “nothing to do” with inflation, attributing recent price pressures largely to services. The comment accompanied a rollback of tariffs on more than 200 food items, including coffee, beef, and certain tropical fruits.

Available inflation data offers a different interpretation. Consumer Price Index readings show headline inflation rising from 2.3% in April — before the tariffs took effect — to 3.0% in September. St. Louis Fed research further estimated that tariffs contributed roughly 0.5 percentage points to core PCE inflation between June and August. While the magnitude and persistence of tariff-driven effects can be debated, the data indicate tariffs have been a non-negligible factor in recent price dynamics.

Why this matters for gold and silver: if tariffs and other supply-side pressures keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank may delay or scale back expected rate cuts. That policy outcome typically supports precious metals, which are often viewed as hedges against persistent inflation and currency uncertainty. As policymakers argue over the causes of inflation, investors in bullion are already adjusting positions based on the range of possible monetary responses.

UBS Says Silver’s Selloff Is a Buying Opportunity

Silver has retreated from highs near $54.50 per ounce, but UBS maintains a bullish stance, reiterating a target of $55 by mid-2026. The bank views the recent dip as profit-taking by momentum traders rather than a change in fundamentals.

UBS expects the gold-to-silver ratio to tighten toward roughly 76:1 and possibly to 70:1, a move that would imply silver outperforming gold. The bank also forecasts that ETF holdings of silver could surpass their previous record of about 1,021 million ounces, driven by lower interest-rate expectations, concerns about global debt levels, and potential dollar weakness. UBS’s base case includes gold reaching $4,200 per ounce, which would likely support further gains in silver.

For investors considering precious metals exposure, UBS sees the selloff as a strategic entry point, while urging attention to macro indicators and ETF flows that could drive near-term price action.

World Gold Council Weighs in on What’s Next for Gold

The World Gold Council’s Unearthed podcast recently examined possible paths for gold prices, reviewing recent market behavior, the effects of political developments in Washington, and expectations for the remainder of 2025. The discussion synthesized viewpoints on central bank buying, supply-chain pressures, and investor demand.

Speakers referenced takeaways from the LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference in Kyoto, where industry professionals assessed trends across mining, refining, and institutional demand. With gold trading above $4,000 for much of the year despite periodic pullbacks, the podcast offers timely perspectives on whether the current rally has room to continue or whether a period of consolidation is more likely. Listeners tracking precious metals may find the analysis useful for framing near-term and medium-term positioning.

Senate Bill Targets First Real US Gold Audit in Decades

A newly introduced Senate bill (S.3218) would require a credible audit of U.S. government gold holdings for the first time in decades and call for periodic follow-up audits every five years. The measure also proposes bringing the purity of official reserves in line with global market standards.

The last comprehensive audit of Fort Knox dates back to 1953. The Treasury reports holding more than 8,100 tonnes of gold, representing the world’s largest official reserves, but questions about verification and condition have persisted among some observers. If enacted, the legislation would increase transparency around America’s gold stockpile and could influence market perceptions of sovereign reserve reliability.

For investors, greater transparency could reduce uncertainty about physical reserves and potentially influence demand for private bullion, though the direct market impact will depend on audit findings and subsequent policy responses.