Gold Prices Slip as Fed Officials Delay December Rate Cut

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 20th, 2025

As of 10:30 am EST:

• Gold prices are flat (+0.1%), around $4,084 per ounce
• Silver is down slightly (-0.4%), at $51.20 per ounce

September Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, But Questions Remain

The long-delayed September jobs report arrived this morning, showing U.S. employers added 119,000 positions—more than double the 50,000 many economists had forecast. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% from 4.3%, and revisions revealed that August was weaker than first reported, with a loss of 4,000 jobs that month. Hiring was strongest in health care and hospitality while manufacturing and warehousing saw declines. Labor force participation rose to 62.4%, a seven-month high.

This report provides the last comprehensive view of the labor market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. However, its influence on market expectations appears muted: traders have sharply dialed back the probability of a December rate cut, reflecting uncertainty over the path of inflation and growth. Because October data were not published due to the government shutdown, policymakers will lack a full, up-to-date picture of hiring until mid-December. The mixed signals—modest job gains, a higher unemployment rate, and stronger participation—leave Fed officials divided about whether to ease policy or maintain restraint.

Fed’s Hammack Warns Against More Rate Cuts

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that lowering interest rates now could “prolong this period of elevated inflation” and might encourage excessive risk-taking in financial markets. Hammack, who opposed the Fed’s October rate cut, said monetary policy is “barely restrictive, if at all” and urged caution against loosening policy prematurely. She emphasized that financial conditions remain fairly accommodative, with equities near highs and credit flowing readily.

Her remarks reflect the views of several Fed officials who are pushing back against rapid easing. Those warnings have helped push market odds of a December cut well below earlier levels, as traders reassess how quickly the Fed can pivot without reigniting price pressures. For precious metals investors, comments like these matter because expectations for rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar and support gold and silver; conversely, hawkish guidance can strengthen the dollar and pressure metals prices.

Small Businesses Point to Inflation as Top Concern

Inflation remains the top concern for U.S. small businesses. A new Bank of America survey finds roughly seven in ten small business owners list price pressures as their primary worry for the year ahead. Many report sharp cost increases—77% say their expenses rose by an average of 18% over the past year—forcing 64% of respondents to raise their own prices. Nearly 40% have revisited cash flow projections and spending plans in response.

Despite these strains, optimism endures: three-quarters of small businesses enter the new year with a positive outlook and many plan to expand or hire. That mix—stubborn inflation alongside cautious growth—mirrors the Fed’s dilemma. With consumer price inflation running around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers must weigh the risk of cutting rates too soon against the pain businesses and consumers feel from ongoing price pressures. For commodity markets, persistent inflation and resilient demand can support precious metals as an inflation hedge.

Gold Pressured as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

Gold slipped below $4,070 per ounce today as the U.S. dollar strengthened and traders reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut next month. Spot gold fell as much as 1% before settling near $4,066, pressured by a firmer greenback that makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Recent Fed minutes highlighted officials’ concerns about inflation risks, further dampening hopes of imminent easing.

Market-implied odds of a December rate reduction have collapsed in the past week—from roughly two-thirds probability to around a one-in-three chance. That change in expectations is a key driver behind the recent pullback in gold. Still, some analysts remain constructive on gold over the medium term, pointing to the possibility that rate cuts could resume later and that safe-haven demand and diversification needs may support higher prices in 2026.

African Rainbow Eyes $5 Billion Copper Bet

South African miner African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating a major copper venture in Papua New Guinea in partnership with U.S. miner Newmont. The potential project could require between $4 billion and $5 billion in investment. Chairman Patrice Motsepe said the company has meaningful financial capacity—roughly $750 million in cash and about $400 million in available credit—to pursue opportunities of this scale.

The move highlights ARM’s strategic pivot toward copper, a metal in high demand as global economies electrify and build out renewable energy and electric-vehicle infrastructure. Papua New Guinea is known for rich copper deposits, and a large development there would be among the most significant foreign investments in the country in recent years. If the project proceeds, it would deepen ARM’s footprint in critical minerals and reflect broader long-term expectations about supply constraints and the importance of copper to the energy transition.