Consumer Confidence Drops for Fifth Month; Expectations Index Falls to 2011 Low

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined for the fifth consecutive month, falling to a reading of 86 in April. That figure is down from March’s 92.9 and below economists’ consensus forecasts. The continued slide highlights growing unease among households about the economic outlook and their own financial prospects.

Key Readings: Overall Index and Expectations

While the headline Consumer Confidence Index measures current sentiment, the Expectations Index — which gauges how consumers feel about the next six months — is the more troubling signal. The Expectations Index dropped to 54.4, its lowest level since 2011. Historically, readings well below the 80 level on this index have often preceded periods of economic weakness, making the current low reading a notable red flag for policymakers and market watchers.

Rising Inflation Concerns and a Weaker Job Outlook

Alongside falling confidence, consumers’ inflation expectations ticked up to 7%. Higher inflation expectations can influence household behavior, nudging some consumers to speed up purchases to avoid anticipated price increases, while prompting others to cut discretionary spending. At the same time, perceptions of the labor market deteriorated: about 32.1% of consumers now expect fewer job opportunities in the months ahead. A weakened job outlook can reduce household willingness to spend and may weigh on broader economic activity.

Possible Links to Recent Policy Announcements

Several respondents pointed to recent tariff announcements by President Trump as a factor driving concern. Tariff news can affect consumer sentiment through several channels: consumers may worry that tariffs will raise the cost of imported goods, erode purchasing power, or prompt companies to delay hiring and investment. While surveys cannot definitively prove causation in real time, the timing and respondents’ comments suggest tariffs are contributing to the heightened uncertainty about personal finances and employment prospects.

Why This Matters

Consumer confidence influences spending, which in turn makes up a large share of economic activity. When confidence falls sharply, households are more likely to tighten budgets, postpone major purchases, and reduce discretionary spending. A persistent decline in confidence, especially when paired with rising inflation expectations and fears of fewer job opportunities, can increase the risk of slower growth or even push the economy toward a contraction if the trends continue.

What to Watch Next

Going forward, three areas will be important to monitor: movements in the Expectations Index, changes in inflation and job market data, and any additional policy moves that could affect household costs or business investment. If the Expectations Index remains depressed while inflation expectations stay elevated and job prospects worsen, that combination would reinforce concerns about a near-term slowdown.

The current readings signal that many households feel less confident about their financial future than they did a few months ago. Policymakers, businesses, and investors will likely pay close attention to upcoming economic reports and further consumer surveys to judge whether sentiment stabilizes or continues to deteriorate.

Overall, the latest Conference Board figures point to a clear shift in mood among consumers: confidence is down, expectations are weak, and worries about inflation and jobs have increased. Those developments underscore growing economic uncertainty and highlight the potential consequences for spending and growth unless sentiment improves.