Why Gold Prices Aren’t Rising Despite Bears Vanishing in June

Speculative short positions in COMEX gold dropped sharply—about 35% in the week ending June 2—and have remained unusually thin for the past ten weeks. On August 11 buyers added 23,923 long contracts on top of that gap, and that changes how a price dip should be interpreted.

Why hasn’t gold rallied more? The metal rose only 0.64% on Monday to $4,405 per ounce and still struggles to clear $4,500. The explanation is neither solely the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. dollar. Instead, the futures market has been missing one of its two traditional sides—the short side—since early June. This week, fresh buying arrived on top of that already-thin short base.

To recap the positioning shift: gross short positions in COMEX gold fell from 46,444 contracts to 30,076 in the week ending June 2, according to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report for that week. Shorts have remained suppressed since then: nine of the past 60 weeks with gold’s short base under 40,000 contracts came after that June date. As of the most recent report cited in this piece the short count stood at 32,996 contracts, roughly 64% of the 60-week median of 51,716.

What does a short position do in the gold market?

The CFTC’s weekly COT release shows positions held the prior Tuesday and separates commercial hedgers from non-commercial speculators. Speculators trade to profit from price moves rather than to hedge production or inventory. Their net length equals their long bets minus shorts.

Short positions play an outsized role despite being “bearish.” When a short seller covers or closes a position, they must buy. That covering demand acts as the market’s shock absorber during declines—shorts are the buyers of last resort. Each COMEX gold futures contract represents 100 troy ounces, so a short base of roughly 33,000 contracts implies about 3.3 million ounces of standing buying power. By contrast, through May the typical cushion averaged around 54,900 short contracts.

What changed in gold positioning this week?

In the week ending August 11, gross long positions climbed by 23,923 contracts to 250,936—the highest level during the recent ten-week span. Total open interest rose by 28,758 contracts to 400,309. That combination is telling: it indicates fresh money entered the market rather than a large-scale short covering. New buying increased both longs and open interest.

Speculative net length reached 217,940 contracts, equal to 54.4% of open interest—a 60-week high for the share of open interest. The margin is narrow, however; the June 2 reading registered about 53.99%. The key point is that buyers have committed heavily into a market that already had very few shorts on the other side.

Why is gold not going up past $4,500?

Because the trade has become one-sided. With speculative net length exceeding half of all COMEX open interest, there are few marginal buyers left to lift the price on supportive news. Even when favorable developments arrive, a market that is predominantly long lacks the additional demand that would push prices substantially higher.

For example, in mid-August gold got favorable cues: the market trimmed the odds of a September Fed rate hike and the dollar softened—factors that normally help the metal. But the traders who would have bought that news were largely already positioned. That situation is arithmetic rather than a directional verdict. Forecasts from major research desks, including a projection cited in June that sees much higher averages later in the year, coexist with this technical congestion: long-term fundamentals can remain intact even as short-term positioning limits near-term rallies.

Is silver positioned the same way as gold?

No. Silver outperformed on Monday, rising 1.60% to $65.74—more than double gold’s intraday gain. Yet silver’s speculative net long stood at 23,646 contracts, only 20.5% of its open interest and far below the recent peak. In other words, silver is advancing without the same degree of speculative crowding that now marks gold. This contrast underscores that the story here is about futures positioning, not the metals themselves.

What does crowded positioning mean if you own physical metal?

Futures positioning does not change the number of physical ounces in existence. Open interest of roughly 400,309 contracts represents about 40 million ounces of paper claims—claims priced by sentiment and margin dynamics on an exchange. Physical metal stored in a vault cannot be liquidated by margin calls elsewhere. That difference matters.

Futures market positioning primarily determines the daily quoted price. It does not alter the long-term rationale for holding sound money, which rests on factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficits, and purchasing power over years and decades. When a crowded paper trade unwinds, the quoted price can fall sharply even though the physical ounce and the arguments for owning it remain unchanged. For savers with a multi-year horizon, such price moves can present buying opportunities rather than reasons to abandon the asset.

Two upcoming dates are worth watching: the minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting (released at the scheduled time) and the next COT report, which will show positions as of the following Tuesday and reveal whether speculative concentration has increased or eased.

Frequently asked questions

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SOURCES
1. CFTC — Commitments of Traders (Legacy, Futures Only), data as of August 11, 2026, released August 14, 2026
2. CME Group — COMEX Rulebook Chapter 113: Gold Futures, accessed August 17, 2026
3. CME Group — CME FedWatch Tool, August 14, 2026
4. Federal Reserve — August 2026 Release Calendar, accessed August 17, 2026
5. J.P. Morgan Global Research — Gold Price Predictions for 2026 and 2027, June 2026
6. GoldSilver — Live Gold and Silver Price Charts, August 17, 2026, 19:11 UTC
7. Investing.com — CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions, August 14, 2026

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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