What's Driving Gold Prices: Oil, PMI Data, and Newmont Results

Gold and silver market update — April 23, 2026

In this update: Brent crude around $103, the PMI hitting a 47-month high with sharply rising input costs, and Newmont’s reported mine costs jumping $322 per ounce — together these trends are reinforcing a stronger gold price floor. Higher oil-driven inflation and tightening mine supply in 2026 are making that floor harder to break.

Why Did Trump Order the Navy to Shoot Mine-Laying Boats — and What Does It Mean for Gold?

This morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social ordering the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and said mine-clearing operations would be tripled. CENTCOM has reported redirecting or intercepting dozens of vessels under the blockade.

Before the conflict intensified on February 28, roughly one-fifth of global traded oil flowed through the Strait. Brent crude was trading near $103.67 today, roughly 54% higher than a year ago. Rising energy costs feed directly into consumer prices and the broader inflation backdrop, which supports gold even as the dollar strengthens. Physical gold is ultimately a barometer of global instability and rising costs, not of who controls a given waterway.

What Is the PMI Report Really Saying About Inflation — and Why Does It Matter for Gold?

S&P Global’s April flash PMI showed manufacturing jumping to 54.0 — a 47-month high from 52.3 in March — while services recovered to 51.3. On the surface that reads as a strong economy.

A closer look shows manufacturing input costs rising to a 10-month high, the second-fastest pace of cost inflation since July 2022. S&P Global cited the Iran war as a direct contributor to energy-related cost pressures.

That combination — expanding output alongside accelerating costs — is a real-time picture of stagflation. It places central banks between the risks of choking growth with higher rates or allowing inflation to become entrenched. Gold tends to benefit when central banks face that dilemma: it does not require a recession to rise, only an environment where policy can’t decisively control inflation.

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Why Is $103 Oil Both Good and Bad for Gold Holders Right Now?

By 9 a.m. ET Brent crude was near $103.67 per barrel, up roughly $2.53 from yesterday and about $37.50 higher than a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains.

For gold holders, higher oil is a double-edged sword. Rising oil prices are inflationary and historically push investors toward gold as an inflation hedge. At the same time, sustained high oil can reinforce expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer, strengthening the dollar and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

That tug-of-war keeps gold range-bound in the near term. If disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remain for an extended period, some strategists warn Brent could average much higher later in the year, a shift that would likely tilt the balance decisively in gold’s favor as inflationary pressures overshadow rate headwinds.

What Does Newmont’s Cost per Ounce Tell Us About the Gold Price Floor?

Newmont (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, was scheduled to report Q1 2026 results after the close. Analysts expected higher EPS and strong revenue, but one headline metric matters most for the market: Newmont’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance for 2026 sits substantially above 2025 levels.

Newmont’s AISC guidance rose to around $1,680 per ounce versus $1,358 per ounce for full-year 2025 — a roughly $322 increase within a year. Rapidly rising production costs tighten potential new supply as marginal projects become less economical. That structural tightening helps establish a floor under the gold price. Institutional buying and the stock performance of major producers also reflect markets pricing in a persistently higher gold environment.

Why Did Silver Reverse Its Outperformance Today — and What Should Holders Do?

Yesterday silver outperformed gold roughly 2-to-1. Today that reversed: silver fell about 3.5% while gold declined less than 0.3%. Since the Iran conflict began, silver’s drawdown has been steeper than gold’s, with the metal down over 15% from its peak.

What drives silver’s sharper moves?

Silver plays a dual role as both an industrial metal and a monetary-like store of value. During spikes in geopolitical risk, traders often price in potential industrial demand destruction and sell silver first. When fears recede, silver’s monetary characteristics can drive stronger rebounds. That dual nature produces higher volatility relative to gold and means silver investors typically need greater conviction and a longer time horizon to weather cycles. Underlying the day-to-day swings, the market faces a multi-year structural supply deficit that supports longer-term prices.

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SOURCES
1. U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM press releases 2026; AP coverage of actions in the Strait of Hormuz
2. U.S. Central Command — press release on maritime interceptions and blockades
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration — analysis of the Strait of Hormuz as a key oil transit point
4. Market reporting on oil prices, April 23, 2026
5. S&P Global — Flash US Composite PMI, April 2026
6. Major bank analysis on oil-price scenarios if Hormuz disruptions persist
7. Newmont Corporation — FY2025 results and 2026 guidance disclosures
8. Company earnings releases and regulatory filings for Newmont
9. U.S. labor data releases and market coverage, April 23, 2026
10. U.S. Geological Survey — silver supply and statistics

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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