The USDA sharply revised its egg price outlook on Tuesday, now projecting a 41.1% increase in 2025 — more than double the 20% rise estimated in January.
The change reflects the ongoing impact of avian influenza on commercial egg production. In January alone, an estimated 18.8 million egg-laying hens were affected, driving significant reductions in supply across the industry.
Consumers are already seeing higher prices at the store. Retail egg prices rose 13.8% month-over-month in January and 53% year-over-year, lifting the national average to $4.95 per dozen. The USDA cautions that supplies remain “very light to light,” with little chance of meaningful improvement in the near term.
Producers and retailers are responding in different ways: some are raising prices to cover higher costs from reduced flocks and increased biosecurity measures, while others are limiting purchases to manage inventory. The USDA’s larger forecast revision signals continued pressure on availability and pricing throughout 2025, as recovery from losses caused by the disease is expected to take time.
For shoppers, short-term options are limited. Substitutes such as egg alternatives and certain egg-based products may provide temporary relief, but these products can be more expensive and may not fully replace eggs in every recipe. Consumers may see regional differences in pricing and availability depending on local production and distribution patterns.
Industry experts note that restoring flock sizes and stabilizing the market will depend on successful disease containment, restocking efforts, and the pace at which hens return to production. Until those factors improve, the USDA’s revised projection suggests higher egg prices will persist, affecting household grocery budgets and foodservice operations alike.