US Economy Projected to Contract 2.8% as Warning Signs Emerge

Despite a US economy that has been “chugging along” with 2.3% GDP growth through Q4 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s real-time GDP forecast now projects a 2.8% economic contraction.

This negative swing primarily reflects a sharper-than-expected decline in post-holiday consumer spending and increased imports ahead of tariff implementation.

While not necessarily signaling a recession, this projection comes amid growing consumer pessimism about economic prospects and renewed inflation concerns, particularly regarding the potential impact of Trump’s steep import tariffs on consumer prices.