UBS Group AG has raised its gold price forecast to $3,200 per ounce for the next four quarters, up from its prior target of $3,000. The bank cited mounting risks of a prolonged global trade war under President Trump’s policies as a key factor behind the adjustment.
Gold recently climbed past $3,000 per ounce for the first time. UBS expects the metal to continue benefiting from rising recession fears and the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, both of which typically boost demand for safe-haven assets.
Other major banks, including Macquarie Group and BNP Paribas, have also lifted their gold price targets. UBS noted that robust central bank buying and growing inflows into gold ETFs are further supporting higher prices.
Analysts point out that central bank purchases have become an important force in the gold market, while ETF flows offer a transparent signal of investor demand. Together with macroeconomic concerns, these factors have helped push gold prices to record levels and underpin forecasts for further gains over the coming year.
Despite short-term volatility, UBS’s revised forecast reflects a view that structural drivers—such as heightened geopolitical tensions, potential policy shifts, and continued central bank interest in gold—will keep upward pressure on prices. Investors watching the yellow metal will likely pay close attention to economic data and Fed guidance that could influence the timing and extent of rate cuts.
In summary, UBS’s upgrade to a $3,200-per-ounce target aligns with a broader industry trend toward more bullish gold outlooks, backed by central bank demand and ETF inflows amid increased recession risks and expectations of looser monetary policy.