U.S. National Debt Projected to Soar to $53 Trillion by 2035, Report Warns

A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) concludes that the United States’ national debt is on a trajectory to rise from roughly $37 trillion today to about $53 trillion by 2035, equal to nearly 120% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That projection is approximately $1 trillion higher than earlier estimates, signaling a faster and deeper fiscal deterioration than previously anticipated.

Rising Deficits and Growing Interest Costs

The CRFB report highlights sharp increases in annual budget shortfalls: deficits are expected to grow from roughly $1.7 trillion this year to about $2.6 trillion by 2035. Over the coming decade, cumulative deficits are projected to total roughly $22.7 trillion. Those persistent shortfalls will drive the debt upward and increase pressure on federal finances.

One of the most consequential consequences is the surge in debt service costs. Interest payments that the federal government must make on its outstanding debt are projected to climb from around $1 trillion today to roughly $1.8 trillion by 2035. That near-doubling of annual interest obligations reduces fiscal flexibility because more of the federal budget will be consumed by interest rather than discretionary programs, investments, or policy priorities.

Policy Drivers: Tax Changes and Legislative Decisions

The CRFB attributes much of the projected fiscal decline to recent legislative choices. In July, the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” permanently extended tax provisions from the 2017 tax legislation. According to the report, maintaining those tax cuts into the future carries an estimated ten-year cost of about $4.1 trillion. While the White House has highlighted an average household tax savings figure of $3,752 to promote the measure, budget analysts and watchdog groups caution that the long-term cost of permanently extending these tax changes makes the nation’s fiscal path unsustainable without offsetting measures.

With lawmakers already discussing further budget legislation, the CRFB and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) have both emphasized the urgency of adopting policies to rein in deficits. Their warnings underscore that unchecked deficits and rising debt will amplify interest costs and limit policymakers’ ability to respond to unforeseen economic shocks, emergencies, or national priorities.

What the Projections Mean for Fiscal Policy

These projections do not simply represent abstract numbers on a ledger; they have practical implications for economic policy, future taxation, and public services. As debt and debt service costs grow, options for addressing the imbalance typically fall into three general categories: raising revenue, reducing spending, or reforming major entitlement programs. Each path carries economic and political trade-offs, and the report’s authors stress that delaying corrective action increases the scale and difficulty of future adjustments.

Higher interest expenses can crowd out investment in infrastructure, education, research, and other priorities, or compel higher taxes to cover growing obligations. Moreover, sustained fiscal deficits can, over time, affect investor confidence and borrowing costs, which in turn influence economic growth and household finances.

Calls for Deficit Reduction and Responsible Planning

In response to the report, budget watchdogs, analysts, and some policymakers are calling for a comprehensive, bipartisan approach to deficit reduction that balances fiscal responsibility with economic growth objectives. The CRFB and CBO have urged lawmakers to consider a mix of policies that could include targeted spending restraint, tax reform that broadens the base while preserving growth incentives, and structural changes to entitlement programs to ensure long-term solvency.

Ultimately, the report serves as a reminder that current fiscal choices have long-term consequences. Without credible plans to slow the growth of deficits and stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio, the United States may face increasingly constrained fiscal options and higher costs for servicing its debt. The coming budget debates will be central to determining whether policymakers respond to these warnings with sustainable solutions or allow projected shortfalls to widen further.