The White House and many independent economists sharply disagree over the projected fiscal impact of President Trump’s proposed tax plan.
Nonpartisan analysts at institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office and the Tax Foundation estimate the legislation would increase the federal deficit by roughly $3 trillion over the next decade. By contrast, the Trump administration has argued the plan could boost economic growth enough to raise revenues and even reduce the deficit—claiming potential deficit reductions of as much as $8 trillion.
The divergence between those estimates amounts to roughly $11 trillion, a discrepancy that has heightened tensions on Capitol Hill. Economists and budget experts have criticized the administration’s projections as overly optimistic and based on inconsistent or implausible assumptions. During a recent congressional hearing, Treasury Secretary Bessent was only able to point to Arthur Laffer—an economist known for supporting the president’s tax approach—as an independent voice endorsing the administration’s view, prompting audible reactions in the hearing room.