Record Gold Stockpiling Masks True Impact on US Economic Outlook

The US goods-trade deficit is expected to remain near record levels, with February data likely showing a gap approaching $162 billion due to massive gold bullion imports to New York. These imports are surging as traders rush to acquire physical gold before potential Trump tariffs on precious metals take effect. Comex gold inventories jumped 25% in February after a 43% rise in January, reaching a record 42.6 million ounces—nearly double the end-of-2024 levels.

While investment gold imports don’t impact GDP calculations (unlike silver imports), the widening trade deficit is still raising economic concerns. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects the economy contracted 1.8% in Q1, with trade subtracting 4 percentage points, though this doesn’t fully account for gold import effects. Switzerland has been a major source, shipping record amounts of gold to the US in recent months.