Oil prices held steady as traders weighed two main factors: rising US-China trade tensions and ongoing diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude hovered near $67 a barrel after Beijing unveiled measures to help exporters affected by US tariffs, while reiterating confidence in meeting its 5% economic growth target. Markets interpreted the support plan as helpful but insufficient to fully offset demand concerns tied to the trade dispute.
The oil market has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2022, driven by worries that sustained trade frictions will dampen global fuel demand. That pressure has been amplified by OPEC+ decisions to raise production, which have increased near-term supply and weighed on prices.
Traders are now focused on a slate of upcoming US economic data and quarterly earnings from major oil companies, both of which could give clearer signals about demand and industry profitability. Strong US data might bolster crude prices by suggesting firmer fuel consumption, while weaker figures could extend the downward trend.
Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran over nuclear issues continues, offering a potential stabilizing influence on Middle Eastern risk premiums. These negotiations are proceeding even as a deadly explosion struck a strategic Iranian port, an event that briefly heightened geopolitical concerns but has not yet produced sustained market disruption.
Overall, the market remains cautious. Short-term price action will likely hinge on developments in trade policy, the pace of OPEC+ production adjustments, and incoming economic indicators. Investors and refiners are watching for any clear signs that demand will accelerate or that supply conditions will tighten, either of which could help reverse recent losses.
For now, oil prices reflect a balance between supply increases and demand uncertainty, with traders ready to react to new data, corporate results and geopolitical shifts that could reshape near-term fundamentals.