Morgan Stanley Predicts Gold Price at $4,800 While Silver Lags

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
December 16, 2025

Jobs Added, But Trouble Brewing

The November jobs report finally arrived after an 11-day delay caused by the government shutdown, and it brought mixed signals for the economy and markets. While the headline showed 64,000 jobs added—slightly above the roughly 50,000 economists expected—other details painted a less reassuring picture.

Unemployment ticked up to 4.6%, the highest reading since September 2021, and October’s data was revised to show a loss of 105,000 positions. Economists caution that the report is noisy: departures of federal workers tied to recent corporate transactions and other one-off events distorted the numbers. Forecasters expect further revisions when more complete data is released in January.

Markets reacted only modestly, but the Federal Reserve now faces another datapoint suggesting rate cuts may need to be delayed into 2026. Investors in gold and silver should note that monetary policy expectations are a primary driver for precious metals—so any change in the Fed’s timeline can influence price momentum.

The Labor Market’s 2026 Question: Thaw or Crack?

Throughout 2025 the U.S. labor market largely behaved like a “no-hire, no-fire” freeze—employers were cautious about expanding payrolls, but mass layoffs were limited. That stasis raises a central question for 2026: will hiring activity revive gradually, or will the labor market weaken further?

Analysts at the Indeed Hiring Lab have warned that a deterioration is a real possibility. Much of this year’s modest job growth was concentrated in healthcare, which accounted for nearly half of net increases. If that sector slows, it could ripple through the broader market.

Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the labor market was “under pressure,” noting job creation could turn negative in some months. Some economists view this pattern as a controlled soft landing. Others worry the economy could enter 2026 from a weaker starting point than a year earlier. The consensus among many observers is cautious: expect selective, slower hiring and a tougher job search for those who lose their positions.

Ivory Coast Gold Miners Cave to Tax Hike

Gold producers operating in Ivory Coast have begun paying a newly imposed flat royalty of 8% on revenue, backdated to January 2025. The government replaced the previous sliding scale of 3–6% as part of efforts to boost non-cocoa revenue and diversify the national economy.

Mining companies initially resisted the change, citing contractual protections. However, with the government standing firm and global gold prices up substantially this year, miners opted to comply rather than face penalties or prolonged uncertainty. This development mirrors a wider trend across resource-rich African nations: higher commodity prices are prompting governments to extract more fiscal value from mining operations.

For precious metals investors, the takeaway is clear: rising prices often invite higher taxes, regulatory scrutiny, and resource nationalism. Those factors can affect project economics, production outlooks, and ultimately mine-level supply—important variables when modeling gold exposure in a portfolio.

The Bitcoin Slump Nobody’s Talking About

Bitcoin is on course for only its fourth annual loss ever, and this downturn lacks the headline-making exchange collapses that explained past drops. The cryptocurrency is down roughly 7% year-to-date after a 5.2% selloff on Monday, leaving it about 30% below the October record high of $126,000.

What stands out is investor fatigue rather than panic. Trading volumes have fallen and the token has remained range-bound between roughly $80,000 and $100,000 for months. Unlike previous drawdowns tied to major scandals, this decline feels like the market taking a breather—participants stepping back and reassessing risk rather than fleeing.

For investors who follow both digital and traditional stores of value, the lesson is that significant price moves can occur without a single defining catalyst. Periods of consolidation can create opportunities, but they also test patience and risk tolerance.

Morgan Stanley: Gold’s Rally Slows, But Keeps Climbing

Wall Street remains generally bullish on gold, although analysts caution that next year’s pace will likely be more moderate than 2025’s rapid gains. Morgan Stanley projects gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026—a robust target but slower than the nearly 50% surge seen this year.

The bank expects central banks and exchange-traded funds to scale back the intensity of their purchases, but still sees support from eventual Fed rate cuts and a softer dollar. Continued central-bank accumulation, steady Chinese retail interest, and global growth concerns should sustain upward pressure on prices, even if momentum eases.

Silver’s outlook is less upbeat. Morgan Stanley estimates that 2025 marked the peak of the supply deficit for silver, and expects a pullback in industrial demand—especially from solar panel installations—in 2026. That dynamic could leave silver trailing gold in performance next year. For investors in precious metals, the forecast underscores an important point: broad bull markets can still produce uneven returns across different metals and sectors.