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Markets Slash Odds of ECB Rate Cut as Trade Deal Eases Tariff Fears

Markets Slash Odds of ECB Rate Cut as Trade Deal Eases Tariff Fears

Traders now see almost no chance (under 30%) of an ECB rate cut at its September 11 meeting, up from about 50% before news of a looming 15% EU–U.S. tariff deal.

After eight cuts over the past year, the ECB held rates steady this week, and President Christine Lagarde’s upbeat tone—emphasizing that policy is in a “good place” and warning that trade-related bottlenecks could stoke inflation—pushed two-year German yields up over 10 basis points to 1.90%.

Eight more from the desk

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