HSBC Warns Gold Rally Running Out of Steam as Safe-Haven Demand Fades
After reaching a record $3,500 per ounce in April, gold has lost momentum and pulled back approximately 5%, puzzling analysts who expected geopolitical volatility and dollar weakness to drive prices higher. HSBC’s chief precious metals analyst James Steele sees this as the beginning of a larger correction, joining other analysts like those at Citi who predicted a 25% decline.
Why HSBC expects gold to fall:
– Fading safe-haven demand as worst-case trade war scenarios haven’t materialized
– Trump’s compromise approach to tariffs reducing deglobalization fears
– Markets successfully navigating various crises, reducing the need for defensive positioning
– Higher prices discouraging physical buyers of coins and jewelry
Despite these headwinds, central bank demand remains robust, with over 1,000 tons purchased annually for three consecutive years. While Steele increased his 2025 forecast to $3,215 and 2026 to $3,125, his long-term target of $2,350 suggests significant downside ahead.
