Goldman Sachs’ co-head of global commodities research, Daan Struyven, recommends gold as an attractive hedge against recession risks.
Despite recent volatility in the market, Struyven remains constructive on gold. He argues that the metal tends to perform well when economic growth weakens and investors seek safe havens. In his view, gold’s role as a store of value and a portfolio diversifier makes it a useful defense against downside scenarios.
Struyven forecasts that gold prices could rise substantially in a recessionary environment, estimating a potential peak around $4,250 per ounce if conditions deteriorate sharply. While such a level would represent a significant jump from current prices, he notes this projection reflects how gold has historically responded during severe economic stress and heightened demand for liquidity and safety.
He identifies several channels through which recession risks could boost gold. One is policy uncertainty in the United States: shifts in trade policy, political decisions, or changes to regulatory frameworks can erode confidence in US assets and push investors toward non-yielding stores of value like gold. Another channel is Federal Reserve policy; aggressive tightening or abrupt policy shifts that harm growth expectations can increase demand for safe-haven assets. Governance changes or reduced confidence in the stability of financial markets more broadly may have a similar effect.
Struyven emphasizes that gold’s appeal is not only tied to its historical performance but also to its ability to complement diversified portfolios. In periods when equities and credit markets weaken, gold can provide a counterbalance, protecting wealth and reducing overall portfolio volatility. He suggests that investors consider strategic exposure to gold as insurance against macroeconomic shocks and policy-driven risks.
While acknowledging that short-term price swings and volatility are possible, Struyven’s outlook highlights gold’s potential to act as a defensive asset in environments characterized by slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, or diminishing confidence in policy frameworks. Investors weighing recession risk may therefore view gold as a pragmatic component of risk-management strategies.