JP Morgan has raised its gold price forecast, now predicting that gold will exceed $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. The bank also expects gold to average about $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025.
That outlook is underpinned by strong demand from both investors and central banks. JP Morgan estimates average quarterly central bank purchases of roughly 710 tonnes this year, a level that would continue to support upward pressure on prices. Reflecting that strength, spot gold has already climbed 29% year-to-date, marked by 28 record highs and, most recently, reaching $3,500 per ounce for the first time.
Nevertheless, JP Morgan highlights a key risk: an unexpected drop in central bank buying would be the largest threat to further price advances. If central banks slow or pause purchases, gold’s momentum could weaken and lead to price corrections.
Silver, by contrast, faces nearer-term headwinds. Supply and demand dynamics and investor positioning have left silver more vulnerable to short-term downside. However, JP Morgan anticipates a recovery in silver markets by late 2025 as industrial demand and investment interest improve.
In summary, JP Morgan’s revised forecasts reflect robust central bank and investor demand that has driven substantial gains in gold this year, while warning that any significant pullback in central bank purchases would present the main downside risk. Silver is expected to lag in the near term but to regain ground toward the end of 2025.