Gold Prices Rise for Seventh Week as Jobs Data Goes Dark

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
October 3rd, 2025

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds in August

After a pause in July, central banks resumed gold purchases in August, adding a net 15 tonnes to global reserves. Kazakhstan led the buying, with Bulgaria and El Salvador also contributing to the uptick. Poland — already the largest buyer in 2025 — reaffirmed its commitment by raising its gold reserve target, underscoring continued official demand for bullion.

Why this matters: Central bank buying remains a foundational support for gold prices. When sovereign institutions increase allocations to gold, it signals long-term confidence in the metal as a reserve asset and hedge against currency or inflation risk. That steady official demand can help sustain prices even when other market drivers fluctuate.

Year-to-Date Central Bank New Purchases and Sales

Gold Extends Seven-Week Rally

Gold is on track for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, trading near $3,870 per ounce as investors digest recent turbulence at the Federal Reserve and a U.S. government shutdown that has frozen important economic releases. Silver is holding around $47.75 per ounce, levels not seen in more than a decade.

This extended advance is notable because it has occurred despite a backdrop of higher real interest rates — an environment that typically pressures non-yielding assets like gold. Instead, political uncertainty, concerns about central bank independence, and a renewed desire for safe-haven assets have driven strong buying. Physical demand from Asia and sizable ETF inflows have added further momentum to the rally, supporting prices across bullion markets.

The strength in bullion has not been isolated: mining equities have ridden the same wave. Higher metal prices combined with better cost discipline at many producers have amplified returns for investors focused on resource equities.

Gold Stocks Outshine AI Giants

Gold miners have delivered exceptional returns this year, outpacing many leading technology names. The MSCI index of global gold miners is up roughly 135% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the roughly 40% advance seen in major semiconductor stocks. Heavyweights such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle have more than doubled in New York, China’s Zijin Mining has recorded strong gains in Hong Kong, and London-listed Fresnillo has nearly quadrupled, making it one of the top performers on the FTSE 100 this year.

This surge reflects more than rising bullion prices: investors are increasingly rewarding companies that demonstrate cost control, stable cash flow generation, and tangible asset exposure. The shift toward “real” assets and away from speculative growth narratives has helped propel mining stocks. The central question for markets now is whether this momentum can be sustained if macroeconomic conditions moderate or if valuations become extended.

U.S. Government Shutdown Silences Jobs Report

The U.S. government shutdown has halted publication of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ headline jobs report, leaving markets without their most closely watched monthly snapshot of the labor market. In the absence of official data, private indicators from providers such as ADP and Revelio Labs suggest the labor market is cooling at the margins: hiring appears to be slowing, layoffs remain limited, and wage growth is easing.

For investors, the pause in official reporting increases uncertainty and elevates the importance of every Federal Reserve comment. A combination of a softening labor market and heightened political dysfunction in Washington could nudge the Fed toward rate cuts sooner than anticipated — an outcome that has historically supported rallies in both gold and silver.

Fed’s Logan Urges Caution on Rate Cuts

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has urged caution regarding additional interest-rate reductions, even as policymakers have trimmed rates recently to reduce the risk of a sharper labor-market slowdown. She noted that inflation remains above target and warned that easing policy too rapidly risks making inflation more persistent and forcing a disruptive policy reversal later.

Logan emphasized the need for careful calibration: while the labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, overreacting with premature cuts could undermine price stability and complicate the Fed’s job of anchoring inflation expectations. This stance highlights the Fed’s balancing act between supporting employment and maintaining progress on inflation — a central dynamic for markets and for the outlook for precious metals.

Implications for investors: robust central bank demand, persistent geopolitical and political uncertainties, and evolving Fed policy together create a favorable backdrop for gold and silver as portfolio hedges. Physical demand and ETF flows remain important near-term drivers, while mining stocks offer leveraged exposure to bullion trends. As always, investors should weigh risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment horizon when considering exposure to precious metals.