Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire forecasts a strong rally for gold and silver in the second half of 2025, projecting gold could climb to between $3,600 and $4,000 per ounce and silver could rise above $40. McGuire attributes this potential rise to a weakening U.S. dollar, an expected interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and robust investor demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets.
Although gold experienced a short-lived pullback after U.S. President Donald Trump stated there would be no tariffs on precious metals, McGuire remains confident that the third and fourth quarters will be bullish for bullion. He expects silver to outperform gold on a percentage basis during that period, driven by industrial demand alongside its traditional store-of-value role.
In addition to precious metals, McGuire anticipates a decline in crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2025. He points to several factors supporting this outlook: easing geopolitical tensions that reduce supply disruption risks, ample oil production keeping inventories well supplied, and a falling inflation rate that can relieve pressure on energy costs. Lower oil prices, he suggests, would ease operating costs for businesses and reduce expenses for consumers, potentially supporting broader economic resilience.
Overall, McGuire’s view centers on macroeconomic shifts—chiefly currency weakness and monetary policy easing—that could boost demand for gold and silver, while improved supply dynamics and cooling inflation may push energy prices lower. Investors following these trends would likely watch currency movements, Fed communications, and supply indicators in the oil market to gauge the timing and magnitude of the anticipated moves in precious metals and crude.