Gold is testing a key level at $3,351 per ounce. A sustained move above that threshold would reinforce that the upward trend remains intact. Last week offered mixed signals: a new set of tariffs was introduced, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of India adopted cautious policy stances, and U.S. economic indicators showed some softening even as robust corporate earnings supported equity markets.
The most notable development was an unprecedented divergence between COMEX gold futures and London spot prices. New U.S. tariffs of 39% on certain Swiss exports disrupted the market because Switzerland handles a large share of global gold refining. The tariffs did not explicitly exempt standard gold bar formats such as 1 kg and 100 oz bars, which created confusion and a sharp price gap between trading venues.
Officials in Washington have signaled intentions to clarify the scope of the tariffs, a move likely to reduce market distortions and ease the dislocation between futures and spot markets. In the meantime, the disruption coincided with broader market trends: equities advanced amid strong corporate results, and the U.S. dollar eased, offering additional support for dollar-priced commodities like gold.
From a technical perspective, traders will be watching whether buyers can push and hold gold above $3,351/oz. If that level is decisively cleared, momentum traders could interpret it as confirmation that the uptrend will continue, potentially attracting further buying. Conversely, failure to sustain gains above that point could invite profit-taking and a re-test of lower support levels.
On the policy front, the cautious approach from the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of India suggests central banks remain attentive to inflation and growth dynamics, but are avoiding sudden moves that might disrupt markets. Those central bank stances, together with weaker U.S. data, reduce the odds of aggressive monetary tightening in the near term—an environment typically favorable for gold, which benefits when real yields decline.
Market participants should also monitor ongoing communications from the White House and the U.S. Treasury for precise guidance on how the tariffs will apply to refined gold products. Clarification will be important for restoring normal flows between Swiss refiners, London bullion markets, and COMEX. Until the rules are explicit, price dislocations and heightened volatility may persist in segments of the physical and futures markets.
In summary, the immediate outlook for gold hinges on two factors: technical momentum around the $3,351/oz level and regulatory clarity on the newly imposed Swiss tariffs. If the market receives clear exemptions or guidance that restores normal trade flows, the distortions between COMEX and London should fade. Combined with a softer dollar and muted prospects for aggressive central bank tightening, those developments could reinforce the bullish case for gold going forward.