Fed’s Bostic Lowers Rate-Cut Forecast as Tariffs Cloud Inflation Outlook

Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, has lowered his projection for interest rate cuts in 2024 from two reductions to a single cut, citing tariffs as a significant barrier to bringing inflation down.

He now expects inflation to reach the Fed’s 2% target by early 2027, later than he previously anticipated but broadly consistent with forecasts from other Fed officials. Although the median Fed projection still implies roughly half a percentage point of cuts this year, a growing number of policymakers are signaling support for only one reduction or none at all.

In contrast to Chair Jerome Powell, who recently described tariff-related price pressures as “transitory,” Bostic avoided that label. The term recalls earlier misjudgments about pandemic-era inflation, and Bostic said he prefers to wait for the effects of policy decisions to be fully realized before revising his economic outlook further.