Global oil markets fell about 1% on Monday as two main forces eased upward pressure on prices: a reduction in Middle East geopolitical risk and expectations of higher supply.
A ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by President Trump after a 12-day conflict, removed much of the risk premium that had pushed Brent crude above $80 per barrel. With tensions cooling, Brent has retreated to $67.11 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $64.58.
Looking ahead, OPEC+ is widely anticipated to approve a further production increase of around 411,000 barrels per day at its July 6 meeting. That rise would be the fifth consecutive monthly output increase since April, adding to market supply and helping to moderate prices.
Despite the recent pullback, oil markets have shown resilience: prices are still positioned to record a second straight month of gains exceeding 5%. Traders and analysts are watching both geopolitical developments and the forthcoming OPEC+ decision closely, since either factor could quickly shift sentiment and alter supply expectations.
Market participants are also monitoring related indicators such as refinery throughput, U.S. crude inventories, and demand signals from major economies. If OPEC+ follows through with the expected increase, the additional barrels would likely soften near-term price momentum, though any renewed regional tensions or unexpected supply disruptions could reintroduce a risk premium and push prices higher again.
In summary, the combination of easing geopolitical tensions and anticipated supply growth helped drive the recent 1% decline in oil prices, even as the market remains on track for notable monthly gains.