COMEX Silver First Notice Day: Key Events to Watch April 30

Gold and silver market update — April 27, 2026

Key Takeaways

• First Notice Day is Thursday, April 30. It coincides with the BEA’s advance Q1 2026 GDP release (8:30 a.m. EDT) and weekly jobless claims. The FOMC rate decision is scheduled a day earlier, on April 29.
• 134.8 million ounces of May contracts remain open as of April 27, according to CME Group futures data — represented by 26,963 open May contracts. But only about 77–80 million ounces of registered silver are held in CME-approved warehouses and immediately available for delivery.
• The COMEX coverage ratio is roughly 13–14% across all open interest — below the 15% stress threshold and under that level for six straight months, per goldsilver.ai tracking of CME data.
• Most May contracts are expected to roll to July. The critical question is whether physical delivery during and after First Notice Day shows real demand for deliverable silver or remains primarily paper-driven.
• Five straight deficit years have drained 762 million ounces from above-ground stocks, per the World Silver Survey 2026. A projected shortfall of 46.3 million ounces in 2026 would mark the sixth consecutive deficit year, and this cumulative tightness shows up in the COMEX coverage ratio.

The COMEX May 2026 silver contract reaches First Notice Day on Thursday, April 30. At that point, holders with open May contracts must either close their positions, roll them into a later month (most likely July), or take physical delivery of silver bars. Each COMEX contract equals 5,000 troy ounces.

As of April 27 there are 26,963 May contracts still open, representing 134.8 million ounces. By comparison, the registered silver pool — metal stored in CME-approved warehouses with active warrants and therefore immediately deliverable — stands at about 77–80 million ounces. That produces a coverage ratio near 13–14% across all COMEX silver open interest, a level the exchange regards as stressed when it falls below 15%.

Silver is trading near $75.67 this morning. The convergence of First Notice Day, the GDP advance estimate, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday makes the coming session notable. With registered inventory already tight, that timing is worth watching closely.

What Is COMEX Silver First Notice Day?

First Notice Day is the first day a futures holder can be required to take or make physical delivery under the contract terms. After April 30, any unresolved May contracts must be closed, rolled to a later month, or accepted as delivery of physical silver bars.

Historically, the large majority of COMEX silver contracts settle without delivery — roughly 97–99% typically close or roll before delivery. May is likely to follow that pattern: open interest in the May contract has already declined significantly, and in one session 4,016 contracts were closed, with more than half rolling into July (which now carries over 62,000 contracts).

What will be most informative is not whether the exchange processes the month — it will — but the pace and scale of physical deliveries. Those numbers reveal the degree to which market participants are seeking actual metal instead of paper exposure.

Why Is COMEX Registered Silver So Low Right Now?

“Registered” silver is inventory inside CME Group–approved warehouses that carries an active warrant and is therefore immediately available to satisfy futures delivery. Late in April that pool was roughly 77–80 million ounces according to daily CME warehouse reports.

Total COMEX silver open interest across all delivery months equates to about 550–575 million ounces. When you compare registered stocks to open interest, the coverage ratio comes to roughly 13–14%. CME observers consider coverage below 15% to be a stressed state. That ratio has remained under 15% for six consecutive months, indicating sustained tightness in deliverable metal available on exchange warehouses.

January illustrated how quickly registered inventories can move: one week in early 2026 saw 33.45 million ounces leave the registered pool — roughly 26% of deliverable silver at the time. While another week like that is unlikely, the registered pool has not been replenished and is smaller now heading into First Notice Day than it was then.

To put delivery math in perspective: on the May contract alone, each one percentage point increase in the delivery rate would require about 1.3–1.4 million additional ounces of registered metal. Across all active delivery months, a one percentage point rise in delivery demand would need roughly 5–6 million additional ounces. Those amounts are manageable for a single day, but sustained delivery rates at higher levels would materially erode an already limited registered pool.

What Other Data Lands on April 30?

Two other market-moving releases occur the same morning as First Notice Day. At 8:30 a.m. EDT the Bureau of Economic Analysis issues the advance estimate for Q1 2026 GDP — the first official read on whether oil-driven inflation impacted US growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model had tracked Q1 growth at about 1.2% annualized as of April 21, while the IMF reduced its 2026 US growth forecast to 1.8% in April. A weak GDP number would heighten stagflation concerns — a historically strong backdrop for precious metals — while a stronger print could support the case for Fed rate cuts later in 2026, which also tends to help gold and silver prices.

Weekly initial jobless claims are released the same morning, providing another gauge of labor-market strength ahead of the Fed’s June meeting. The combined timing means the GDP print, labor data, and the physical delivery picture will be resolved in the same market session.

What Does the Coverage Ratio Signal for Physical Silver Holders?

Physical silver holdings — coins, bars, or allocated vault storage — sit entirely outside COMEX numbers. Physical owners face no rolling pressures or margin calls, and there is no warehouse warrant associated with a privately held bar or coin. That said, the coverage ratio is a valuable real-time indicator of how tight the deliverable market is beneath physical holders.

Sustained readings below 15% for six months mean market participants who require deliverable metal are drawing from a shrinking pool. That dynamic changes the market structure compared with a few years ago, when registered COMEX stocks were roughly three times larger.

It is likely that First Notice Day itself passes without dramatic headlines and that most May contracts roll to July. What matters more is what happens the next day: whether registered inventories hold steady or shrink further. The World Silver Survey 2026 highlights the long-term structural trend — a cumulative drawdown of 762 million troy ounces over five consecutive deficit years, and a projected 2026 shortfall near 46.3 million ounces. If delivery pressure builds against that structural decline, the narrative shifts from a supply story to a price-driving event.

Monitor the coverage ratio on Friday, May 1. The headline delivery count for Thursday will likely be uneventful; the coverage ratio will show whether the exchange’s deliverable inventory was sustained or reduced. More importantly, watch for sustained physical demand that could convert structural scarcity into a meaningful price influence.

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SOURCES
1. CME Group — COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks and Delivery Notices (CME Group daily warehouse reports and contract specifications).
2. GoldSilver.ai — COMEX silver inventory tracker and open interest monitoring.
3. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Gross Domestic Product, Q1 2026 Advance Estimate.
4. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — GDPNow model, Q1 2026 projection.
5. International Monetary Fund — World Economic Outlook, April 2026.
6. Silver Institute and Metals Focus — World Silver Survey 2026.
7. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendar and monetary policy schedule.

By the GoldSilver Editorial Team — helping investors understand sound money since 2005. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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