Investment bank Citi has adjusted its gold price outlook, now projecting that the metal will consolidate in a $3,100–$3,500 per ounce range during the third quarter of 2025. That view marks a step back from the April peak of $3,500 per ounce. Prices have already pulled back by more than $100 since Citi trimmed its near-term target from $3,500 to $3,300 in mid-June.
Citi points to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a gradually improving global economic picture as key reasons for the recent moderation in gold prices. These developments have reduced some of the immediate safe-haven demand that helped push prices higher earlier in the year.
Looking further ahead, the bank expects a longer-term softening in the market. Citi forecasts that gold could decline to a $2,500–$2,700 range by the second half of 2026. That scenario is tied to the expectation that the current market deficit will peak and that investment demand will weaken, placing downward pressure on prices. Given that outlook, Citi recommends that gold producers consider hedging strategies to protect against potential downside risk at current price levels.
Market participants should weigh these forecasts alongside other indicators such as central bank policies, inflation trends, currency movements, and physical demand from consumers and industrial users. While Citi’s projection emphasizes a return to more moderate price levels over the coming year, gold’s performance will remain sensitive to shifts in macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events that could reintroduce upward pressure.
For producers and investors, the key takeaways are to maintain situational awareness and to evaluate hedging and risk-management options appropriate to their exposure and time horizon. Citi’s revised outlook underscores the importance of prudent planning in an environment where both short-term consolidation and longer-term downside risks are plausible.