Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term outlook for gold, now forecasting a rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025. The bank attributes the stronger outlook to ongoing central bank and institutional demand, which continues to underpin the market.
Goldman notes that central bank purchases remain robust, averaging roughly 77 tonnes per month so far in 2025, a pace only marginally below earlier projections. Much of this activity is concentrated among a few large buyers; in May, for example, China added about 15 tonnes to its reserves, reinforcing underlying demand. Although exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings and some institutional positions have eased from recent peaks, Goldman argues that those softer flows create potential for renewed inflows as investor sentiment shifts back toward safe-haven assets.
The bank’s revised targets reflect a view that sustained buying by official sector holders, combined with the prospect of renewed investor interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, will provide upward pressure on prices. In this environment, central bank purchases act as a steady source of structural demand, while intermittent returns from ETFs and institutional accounts can accelerate price moves.
Market dynamics supporting Goldman’s call include limited above-ground supply relative to the scale of official and private sector demand, and the strategic role gold plays in reserve management. When major central banks add to reserves, it not only directly absorbs available metal but also signals broader confidence in gold as part of a diversified asset allocation. That signalling effect can attract additional private investment, reinforcing price momentum.
Goldman’s forecast implies a significant premium over current levels, highlighting the bank’s view that both policy-driven and market-driven factors will converge to push prices higher over the next 12 to 18 months. While short-term volatility remains possible, the combination of steady central bank buying and the potential return of ETFs and institutional investors forms the core rationale for the bank’s elevated targets.
Investors watching the gold market should monitor monthly central bank disclosures, ETF flows, and changes in institutional positioning to gauge whether demand trends are aligning with Goldman’s expectations. Any sustained pickup in ETF inflows or renewed accumulation by large non-official holders could accelerate the path toward the bank’s price milestones.