Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
September 12th, 2025
Inflation Ticks Higher, But Fed Cut Still On Track
August inflation came in a touch warmer than many expected. Headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July, and the monthly increase of 0.4% exceeded forecasts. The rise was driven in part by energy costs, with gasoline up about 0.6% for the month, while food prices continued to pressure household budgets. Although the print is firmer than hoped, core inflation held steady at 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, matching economists’ projections.
Markets have largely treated the data as manageable rather than alarming. Traders remain positioned for a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, and economists say the Fed is increasingly focused on a softening labor market rather than modest price pressures. For precious metals investors, that tilt toward easier policy is supportive for gold and silver.
Gold Eyes Fourth Straight Weekly Gain
Gold is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance, trading above $3,650 per ounce and near a recent all-time high around $3,674. The rally has been notable because it’s occurring even as U.S. bond yields remain relatively firm — a departure from the usual dynamic where rising yields weigh on non-yielding metals. Political calls for lower interest rates and continued central bank purchases have added momentum, with December futures flirting with $3,700.
ETF flows have returned to positive territory and large institutional buyers remain active. Some analysts point to an unusual breakdown in traditional market relationships as uncertainty grows, prompting price targets well above current levels. While inflation concerns still play a role, demand from central banks and funds is increasingly central to the story.
Labor Market Weakness Takes Center Stage at Fed
The Federal Reserve is paying close attention to labor-market developments as signs of cooling become clearer. Weekly unemployment claims recently jumped to their highest level since October 2021, and August payrolls showed only modest gains. Behind the headline numbers, revisions removed roughly a million jobs from previously reported totals through March, underscoring a softer picture than initially believed.
Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as they prepare for potential rate cuts: easing too early risks reigniting inflation, while moving too late risks deeper labor-market weakness. For precious metals investors, weaker-than-expected employment data increases the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing, a tailwind for gold and silver.
Fed’s Confidence Cracks as ‘Fear Meter’ Climbs
Inside the Fed, officials appear increasingly concerned about economic stagnation rather than persistent inflation. Internal measures of worry have risen as the breadth of hiring narrows and some demographic groups see rising unemployment. Job openings are down substantially from 2023 levels, and hiring across industries has pulled back toward pre-recession depths.
At the same time, some inflation pressures tied to tariffs have been less severe than feared, giving the Fed leeway to prioritize growth and employment. A number of economists now expect the central bank to begin cutting rates in the near term, a scenario that typically favors gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
UBS Lifts Gold Price Target to $3,800
UBS has raised its gold forecast to $3,800 per ounce by late 2025, reflecting a view shared by several large institutions. The bank cites ongoing central bank accumulation, returning ETF inflows, weakening U.S. growth, rising government deficits, and tighter physical supply as key drivers. Structural factors such as moves away from dollar dominance and easier gold import regulations in some markets could also boost demand.
Even if headline inflation moderates, UBS and other analysts believe that fiscal pressures and limited available supply will continue to support higher prices. When major institutions revise targets upward, portfolio managers often adjust allocations, which can reinforce price moves in precious metals markets.
Investors should watch central-bank buying, ETF flows, and incoming employment data closely, as these factors are likely to shape gold and silver performance in the months ahead.