Apollo Economist Predicts 90% Chance of Tariff-Driven Recession

Apollo Global Management’s chief economist predicts a 90% chance that the US will enter a “Voluntary Trade Reset Recession” due to Trump’s tariff policies.

Small businesses are expected to be particularly vulnerable as they lack the working capital to pay tariffs.

While some financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put recession chances between 40-45%, JPMorgan estimates a 60% probability.

White House officials remain optimistic, but prominent economists including Ray Dalio and Lawrence Summers express significant concerns, with Summers predicting 2 million additional Americans could become unemployed.