Despite President Trump’s pledges to lower gasoline costs, analysts warn that prices are likely to rise in the coming months due to seasonal factors and proposed trade measures.
Each year, spring brings refinery maintenance and a switch to summer-grade gasoline, which typically increases production costs. Analysts say that this seasonal transition alone could add roughly 25 to 75 cents per gallon at the pump by spring as refineries slow turnaround and shift production to cleaner-burning blends required for warmer months.
Beyond seasonal effects, proposed tariffs could further pressure prices. A 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would particularly affect the Midwest, where many refineries rely heavily on Canadian crude. Disruptions or higher costs for those crude supplies would likely be passed through to regional pump prices, magnifying the seasonal lift.
President Trump has also signaled an intention to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a move he described as bringing supplies “right to the top.” Refilling the reserve requires purchasing crude on the market, and in a tight or seasonally constrained market that buying can reduce available supply and push prices higher in the near term.
Industry observers emphasize that policy commitments to expand domestic drilling do not automatically translate into immediate increases in production. U.S. oil output is already near record levels, and many producers prioritize capital discipline and shareholder returns over rapid production growth. That focus limits how quickly additional domestic supply can come online in response to price changes or policy incentives.
In short, a combination of routine seasonal refinery work, the transition to summer gasoline blends, proposed tariffs on key suppliers, and efforts to refill strategic reserves creates a credible scenario for higher pump prices despite political promises to lower them. Motorists may see those upward pressures reflected at the gas station in the months ahead.