What Moved Gold and Silver Today: Hormuz, ISM, Hecla, Barrick

Five independent forces are now simultaneously easing the largest headwind that has kept gold subdued: the market-priced September Fed-hike premium. As of this afternoon, gold trades near $4,232 and silver near $61.90 — each up more than 4% on the day. Below I explain the drivers behind today’s move and what to monitor next.

Is the Hormuz Deal Finally Real?

Multiple reports this morning indicate the US, Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a 60-day maritime agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed plan would establish separated shipping lanes, commit to clearing mines within 30 days and avoid transit tolls, with officials targeting a public announcement midweek. US officials signaled a deal could come imminently; Iranian approval still appears to require higher-level signoff.

If implemented, a reopened channel would remove a substantial oil-risk premium. Lower oil-price risk reduces inflation expectations, which in turn lessens pressure on the Fed to tighten policy in September. That chain — safer shipping → cheaper oil → softer inflation → lower probability of a September rate increase — is a clear constructive catalyst for gold.

What Did the ISM Services Data Say — And Why Did Gold Ignore the Miss?

The Institute for Supply Management released its July Services PMI today at 54.1, marking the 25th consecutive month of expansion but slightly below the 54.5 consensus. Respondents explicitly cited higher petroleum costs as a factor affecting pricing — a direct link between services inflation and the Hormuz tensions.

Despite the modest miss, gold remained firmly above $4,200 and extended gains. That muted market reaction is notable: a softer services reading reduces one argument for an imminent September rate increase. Combined with weaker private payroll data earlier in the day, the Fed is now receiving soft signals from both the services sector and the labor market — independent data points that point in the same direction and give bullion additional room to move higher.

How Much Has the September Hike Probability Actually Moved?

A week ago, CME FedWatch and related market-implied measures placed the odds of a September rate hike in the low 70s percent. As of this morning those probabilities have fallen to roughly the mid-50s percent, depending on the snapshot and data provider. That represents a 15–18 percentage-point decline in five sessions — a meaningful shift for markets pricing the Fed’s path.

Real yields have eased alongside that change. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated from a recent peak near 4.64% to roughly 4.47% this week, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Markets are now more likely to price a single rate increase by year-end rather than two, so today’s rally reflects a compounding of signals, not a single headline.

Why Does Hecla’s Record Quarter Matter for Silver Investors?

Hecla Mining, North America’s largest primary silver miner, reported a record quarter. The Lucky Friday operation posted its best-ever quarterly silver output, and overall continuing operations produced 4.2 million ounces — up about 8% sequentially. The company repaid $263 million of senior notes and finished the quarter effectively debt-free with roughly $483 million in cash. Free cash flow rose materially year-over-year.

That matters for market structure: silver at about $61.90 today is not being driven by significant supply disruption. The leading North American producer is ramping output while strengthening its balance sheet. In short, the current price appears to reflect genuine demand repricing rather than a squeeze caused by constrained supply.

What Does a Hormuz Deal Mean for Barrick’s Cost Structure Going Into H2?

Barrick Mining reports second-quarter results on Monday, August 10. Newmont’s recent Q2 release is instructive: record free cash flow and all-in sustaining costs that remained below prior guidance. Newmont’s CFO highlighted direct oil exposure — roughly a $60 million swing in the annual cost base for every $10 change in oil.

Oil averaged near $100 per barrel in Q2, while West Texas Intermediate trades near $75 today. If a Hormuz agreement sustains lower oil-risk premiums, miners such as Barrick should benefit from materially improved second-half cost profiles. Higher gold prices coupled with falling energy costs are the recipe for expanded miner margins.

What Comes Next?

The July Nonfarm Payrolls report, due Friday, August 7, is the largest remaining data point before the September FOMC window opens. A weaker-than-expected payrolls print would validate the easing priced into markets this week and reinforce gold’s rally. A stronger-than-expected print would present a challenge to the recent repricing.

Both metals remain well below their January 2026 peaks: gold at about $4,232 is roughly 24% below its January 28 high near $5,589, while silver at $61.90 sits more than 49% below its $121.62 peak. Throughout the correction, structural buyers — central banks, long-term physical holders and institutional allocators — have continued to accumulate. The five signals outlined above do not alter that long-term thesis; they simply remove a key near-term barrier.

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SOURCES
1. Axios, U.S. nears Hormuz deal, aiming for Wednesday announcement, August 5, 2026.
2. CNBC, U.S. says Strait of Hormuz is ‘free and open’ as officials signal deal is close, August 5, 2026.
3. NBC News / AP, reporting on potential Strait of Hormuz agreement, August 5, 2026.
4. Institute for Supply Management, Services PMI July 2026 release, August 5, 2026.
5. FXStreet market commentary on gold price and Hormuz developments, August 5, 2026.
6. Hecla Mining Company, Q2 2026 results and Form 8-K, August 4, 2026.
7. Barrick Mining Corporation, second-quarter reporting schedule and guidance commentary.
8. Newmont Q2 2026 earnings call and related reporting, July 23, 2026.
9. Spot price charts and market data for gold and silver as of August 5, 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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